Bryball- Where Opinion Rounds the Bases

Big News

2003-08-07T21:42:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone, on Monday I will be losing Bryball, and moving to a new blog, entitled Wait Til' Next Year. It will be a unique blog, as it will solely analyze the future. Article examples:

- How transactions effect the future
- Minor League Reports
- What will happen for players/teams this offseason

I'm really excited, and I hope you all will check it out. The link is http://nextbaseball.blogspot.com.

Until Monday, if you have time read Jayson Stark's newest column on ESPN, do it. Its a great article, containing everything on who has passed through waivers, to scouts take on prospects, to Pete Rose. Also, go buy the newest addition of Baseball America. I have a subscription to the magazine, but if I didn't I would undoubtedly buy the Tools addition and top 100 prospects magazine every year. So go buy one.

Quick Cuts

2003-08-05T23:35:00.000-05:00

I've been bad about posts lately, but for good reason. I'm working on huge changes for the blog, and its occupying some time. That, and a crazy moving market...

Here's some thoughts:

- Mark Prior looked great on Tuesday. His line:
6IP 2H 0ER 1BB 6K 79pitches
Couldn't get anymore perfect. Baker kept his pitch count way down, and Prior took care in his home city. The fact that Bobby Hill is injured when the Cubs need him most is a problem, and its now Ramon Martinez's turn to step up. He did in a big way Tuesday, knocking in the Cubs first run.

- No, the White Sox aren't playing great ball still, so Tuesday's win was all the more important. The team has to beat the Royals one-on-one, because the upcoming schedule is tough. Oakland comes to town after Kansas City, and it won't be long until the Yankees trot into town. The team has toyed with going to a four-man rotation, and they must do it now. Esteban Loaiza is the only pitcher who may not be able to handle it, so he could maybe get an extra day off every other start. Throwing Danny Wright into the mix one out of every nine games is better than one in five.

And, I've had an inkling that Danny Wright would make a good reliever for awhile. His control is a little off, but no one questions the quality of his knuckle curve. A look at some stats:

Inning 1: .241/.348/.406
Pitches 1-15: .223/.322/.438

And I rest my case. Yes, he falls apart after that, but that's just the kind of pitcher he is.

- Rich Harden is a god. Peter Gammons wrote about the ability Mulder, Harden, and Hudson have to change speeds, and its amazing. Harden really completes this rotation, and they could be the best playoff team out there...if they make it.

- Colby Lewis is not going to be the pitcher everyone thought he would. I don't care how good his stuff is, he's a very bad pitcher.

109 hits in 77.2IP
54K vs. 51BB
16HR

It's time to give up Texas.

- I'll have the news on the website changes over the weekend...

Moving into August

2003-08-03T23:37:00.000-05:00

I'm working on the 2004 version of the deadline deals, and how they effect next year's version of teams. Today, a work on the Fish.

The Marlins are 10-2 in their last twelve games, against such talents as Montreal, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Houston. They are two games behind Philly in the Wild Card, and have to be considered on of the favorites. Why?

Dontrelle Willis: 2-1 2.94 29H/33.2IP 31K/12BB
Brad Penny: 3-2 2.83 26H/35IP 24K/6BB
Mark Redman: 3-1 3.18 28H/34IP 23K/11BB
Carl Pavano: 1-1 3.38 24H/26.2IP 15K/12BB
Josh Beckett: 3-1 2.42 28H/26IP 30K/10BB

The July numbers of the Marlins pitching staff. That is a very impressive group, and barring injury, and battles with Philly and Arizona in the NL rotations. Dontrelle Willis has taken the NL by storm, and is already the ace. Mark Redman has become one of the best strikeout lefties in the league, and eats a lot of innings. Brad Penny and Josh Beckett are young right-handers that can strike out any player, any time. And Carl Pavano is the inning-eater solid rightie that a fifth starter should be.

Juan Pierre is the type of player Jack McKeon needs. With 41 walks and 26 strikeouts, Juan Pierre is quietly becoming Kenny Lofton. He doesn't strikeout, walks a little, and runs a ton. He stole 14 bases last month, which would come out to be 84 in a full season.

Mike Lowell and Miguel Cabrera in July became the type of corner, middle of the lineup, power hitter this team needs. Derrek Lee has struggled with a hand injury, but still is showing top-notch power. Add in a very capable Alex Gonzalez and Juan Encarnacion, and this is a good lineup.

Pudge Rodriguez is coming around, just finishing a month with a 1.100+ OPS in July. He is a tremendous catcher and has been a wonderful worker with the pitching staff. No one would have believed that this team could succeed without A.J. Burnett. But they are.

The series the rest of the season:

@St.L
@MIL
LA
SD
@COL
@SF
@PIT
MON
PIT
@MON
@NYM
ATL
@PHI
@ATL
PHI
NYM

That Atlanta, Philly home-away will decide the Wild Card. This team is very good, but I don't think they're Wild Card caliber. Expect them to miss out on the Card by about four games.

Trade Analysis

2003-07-30T23:12:00.000-05:00

Until after the deadline, I will be evaluating the deals, as they come. Here are the deals so far, in order of importance:

1. Scott Williamson traded to Red Sox- What are the Reds doing? If you missed it, last night Peter Gammons went mad on Baseball Tonight, criticizing the Reds ownership, and Bud Selig. This deal was just done so the Reds could get some money back, as the chance Phil Dumatrait reaches the Majors are slim. You mean to tell me the Reds couldn't get the BoSox best pitching prospect, Jorge de La Rosa, out of the deal? I don't believe it.

As for the Red Sox, it was sensational. Their bullpen for the playoffs looks fantastic, with Byung-Hyun Kim, and Williamson able to close games in four-inning spans. Throw in lefties Alan Embree and Scott Sauerbeck, and right-handers Mike Timlin and Ramiro Mendoza, and that's a great bullpen.

I will be suprised if the Red Sox don't get one starter before the deadline is over. Putting Tim Wakefield in the playoff bullpen and out of the rotation would strengthen this team greatly, and increase options considerably. Kris Benson, despite being on the DL, is the latest rumor. I think they should pay up for Jeff Suppan, and bring him back to Boston.

Winner: Red Sox

2. Jose Guillen to A's- The Reds got Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine, and a crappy low-A pitcher in return. Harang will go straight into the rotation, while Valentine will likely go to AAA. Harang has had mixed success with the A's, pitching well here and there. I like him, but I don't think he's worth a 23-home run player. Valentine could be a great reliever if he learns to control the strikeout, which will be Don Gullet's job. My dad pointed out today that its funny that everyone with the Reds got fired except their pitching coach, despite this staff being disgraceful.

The A's got something they needed, an outfielder. It was good for Beane to throw his traditional OBP belief to land a right-handed outfielder, to replace Jermaine Dye. If Dye could come back, then it would be a very good outfield, and this offense will be where they expected. The pitchers really don't fit into the A's future plans, as Rich Harden passed Harang a long time ago. Its interesting the player Beane really wanted in the Koch deal, Valentine, was the first to go. I'm here to tell you, this GM isn't invincible.

Winner: A's

3. Diamondbacks get Raul Mondesi: An improvement, although not as much as one might think. Danny Bautista is a poor man's Mondesi, and Raul has put up bad numbers three different months. This does put Bautista in the valuable 4th outfielder role, and improve their defense. The last original D-Back is gone.

The Yankees got David Delucci and Bret Prinz. Delucci is a very good bench player, and its good Brian Cashman is admitting the bench needs help. His left-handed bat will definitly help. Prinz reminds me of Jason Anderson, who was dealt in the Armando Benitez deal. One of two things will happen with Prinz: 1) he'll be traded today or 2) he'll eat some innings in September.

So far the Yanks have improved far less than the Red Sox and A's, and should be concerned. There are Aaron Boone, Vladimir Guerrero, and Brian Giles rumors, but we'll get to those when they come along.

Winner: Diamondbacks

4) Scott Schoenweis to the White Sox- Very good move by the White Sox, who traded useless players, most notably Gary Glover, who didn't fit on this team. Schoenweis apparently will not move to the rotation, as the team is flirting with going to a four-man rotation in August. He is a very good bullpen pitcher, and will help this team in middle relief.

In 2004, expect Schoenweis to get a chance in the rotation. This team will lose Bartolo Colon, and replacing him with Schoenweis isn't enough. But, he'll be a good fifth starter, so they're making baby steps.

The Angels in two days trade Schoenweis for crap, and then release Kevin Appier with a year and a half and $17 million left on his contract. The Angels are falling apart, and proving that it may have been a fluke. I have to think that if they ate a lot of contract they could have traded Appier, despite his troubles in July.

Winner: White Sox

5) Doug Glanville to the Cubs- Well, he's a right-handed Tom Goodwin. Dusty will likely platoon him with Kenny Lofton, so the Cubs can have a sub-.300 OBP man atop the lineup vs. southpaws. Yeah!

6) Rey Sanchez to the Mariners- He will fill the Luis Ugueto role, defensive replacement, very well. Carlos Guillen was put on the DL today, so Sanchez will have the SS job for awhile. This is a good move as long as Sanchez is just used to replace Guillen or Boone in the late innings. But, the Mariners have to do something else.

7) Doug Miceli to Astros- They gave up something?

RUMORS

Peter Gammons reported on Baseball Tonight that the Reds will likely deal Aaron Boone and Gabe White to the Yankees for $3.5 million and Brandon Claussen. This would give the Reds a future ace, and it would strengthen the Yanks depth ten-fold.

If Boone doesn't go to the Yankees, there's a possible three-way deal yielding the Red Sox Freddy Garcia, the Mariners Boone, and the Reds prospects.

I'm excited for tomarrow, so we'll see......

Rookie Talk

2003-07-29T00:04:00.000-05:00

In my opinion one of the better stories and arguments of the 2003 season is the battle for the AL Rookie of the Year. My expanded look into this award follows...

This season there are three legitimate candidates: a New England speedster, Japanese power hitter, and Dominican shortstop. Rocco Baldelli has attracted much press, largely due to his phenomenal start to the season. Perhaps receiving more attention has been Hideki Matsui, who is one of two (along with Ichiro) obsessions of the Japanese media. Angel Berroa in Kansas City doesn’t get the features of the other two, but his unexpected breakout is worthy of headlines.

I want to give a couple of links to begin, as others have preceded me with this argument. Rich Lederer of the Weekend Baseball BEAT wrote his premiere article profiling Baldelli. Aaron Gleeman was the first to introduce Angel Berroa as a candidate to me, and wrote a great feature on Matsui. Be sure to check out those.

Let’s breakdown some key statistics first:

Batting Average
1. Baldelli- .308
2. Matsui- .295
3. Berroa- .289

On-Base Percentage
1. Matsui- .351
2. Berroa- .341
3. Baldelli- .336

Slugging %
1. Berroa- .481
2. Baldelli- .462
3. Matsui- .440

About as even as they come. Each candidate scored a first, second, and third place finish in these categories. The difference between the top two positions is significant in all three statistics, but not so much between the bottom two rookies.

Extra-Base Hits
1. Matsui- 41
2. Berroa- 38
3. Baldelli- 37

Total Bases
1. Baldelli- 186
2. Matsui- 185
3. Berroa- 168

Runs
1. Baldelli- 56
2. Matsui- 52
3. Berroa- 52

While Berroa slips in these categories, it should be noted the difference in at-bats. Berroa has about 50 less at-bats than Baldelli, and 70 less than Matsui. Given that time, Angel would likely become first in all these statistics. But as it stands, its all fairly close here, with one hit here or there making the difference.

More advanced stats:

Runs Created per 27 outs
1. Berroa- 5.64
2. Baldelli- 5.41
3. Matsui- 5.24

Win Shares (thanks to baseballgraphs.com)
1. Matsui- 12.57 (12)
2. Berroa- 10.24 (10)
3. Baldelli- 9.68 (10)

All these statistics, and still no definitive answer. While I thought I was onto something with the Runs Created stat, Bill James proved me wrong. There is no real player who is separating himself given the in-depth look.

And a few not-so-important stats:

RBI
1. Matsui- 72
2. Baldelli- 53
3. Berroa- 47

Stolen Bases
1. Baldelli- 18
2. Berroa- 8
3. Matsui- 0

Wow, what a difference in RBI. Baldelli’s low numbers represent the fact that he plays in Tampa Bay, where he’s had less chances to bring people in. Berroa bats seventh in the Kansas City order, not exactly the fourth and fifth spots of his fellow rookies. Baldelli has another element to his game in terms of speed, which seperates him a little bit. Berroa can run, but will probably not reach 20 SB.

Defense is a very hard thing to look at, as all positions are different. For example, Angel Berroa has 19 errors this season, which dwarfs the five from Matsui and two from Rocco. But the shortstop position is much more difficult, and arguably important. Berroa’s range and arm don’t come up in statistics, but they help Kansas City more than anything. Here’s my pick of where these players rank in defense in the AL in terms of their position:

Berroa, SS- 4th behind A-Rod, Nomar, Tejada
Baldelli, CF- 3rd behind Cameron, Hunter
Matsui, LF- 2nd behind Jacque Jones

But as I said, remember that shortstop is more important than centerfield, just as center is more valuable than right.

Where these players rank offensively by position:

Berroa- 3rd best SS in AL by OPS
Baldelli- 6th best CF in AL by OPS
Matsui- 7th best LF in AL by OPS

And on their own team:

Berroa- 2nd best OPS on KC
Baldelli- 2nd best OPS on TB
Matsui- 5th best OPS on NY

Remember that being high in the shortstop rank is far easier than left field. Center slips right in between those two. And Baldelli’s 2nd best on his team is far less impressive than Berroa’s. Tampa Bay is tied for the 12th best offense in the AL, while New York and KC rank third and fourth, respectively.

Finally, here’s a look at each player’s month-by-month splits, which may enlighten us on who the true player is:

Matsui
April- .255/.322/.368
May- .261/.294/.361
June- .394/.484/.673
July- .276/.292/.368

Baldelli
April- .368/.389/.509
May- .314/.348/.438
June- .255/.293/.426
July- .287/.307/.468

Berroa
April- .282/.341/.436
May- .236/.310/.337
June- .327/.383/.592
July- .299/.321/.519

This provides interesting insight on each player. First, look at how Berroa’s only truly bad month has been May. Eliminate that ‘slump’ from the record books, and you’re looking at a .290/.360/.510 player. While May will always stand, he’s been sensational since June 1, becoming the Royals true second-best player. Peter Gammons wrote a couple of weeks ago about the progress hitting coach Jeff Pentland has made with Berroa.

Baldelli’s splits also feature only one dip, in June. Despite that, Baldelli’s shown the ability to hit for a high average, while posting low on-base percentages. I think the version in May and July, his two less extreme months, is the real Baldelli. Look for him to post something similar to that: .300/.325/.450 the rest of the way.

Matsui is a different story. Hideki’s chart has one real great month, with the others being adequate. I should note that in June, when Matsui lit up, the Yankees played the Devil Rays and Mets a total of 14 times. The real Hideki has been in the other three months, where he’s been a .260/.300/.365 player. Look for more of that the rest of the way.

Berroa was the top prospect in the Royals system before 2002, becoming one of Baseball America’s top ten overall prospects. He had an injury and slumps last season, where he struggled to hit his weight in Omaha. I saw him once there, where I saw him make a few great plays in the hole, and work a couple of deep counts. He is looking to be the player BA thought he would be, and should have some 25/25 seasons ahead of him.

Baldelli was Baseball America’s minor league player of the year last season, largely due to his rise from High-A to AAA during the course of the season. He is a 21-year old Bostonian who has the Major League symbol tattooed on his ankle. I ranked him as one of Major League Baseball’s top 10 marketable players, and he is often likened to Joe Dimaggio.

Matsui was one of the Japan’s greatest power hitters before signing with the Yankees last offseason. It was unknown how his power would transfer into the American game, as the only other Japanese convert, Ichiro, is more of a slap hitter. Aaron Gleeman wrote his feature of the link from above about the huge difference between groundballs and flyballs that Matsui hits, which is currently at 206 to 86, respectively.

I don’t personally believe that a 29-year old imported superstar should get the credit that Baldelli and Berroa do. Their rise has been more typical, and their explosions this season have shown what baseball is all about. Let me emphasize that there is no consensus pick so far this season, and my choices are definitive. The last two months are very important, but right now I would rank my AL ballot as the following:

1. Angel Berroa- SS
2. Rocco Baldelli- CF
3. Hideki Matsui- LF
4. Mike MacDougal- RP
5. Jody Gerut- OF

Also look for these three names to make a big impact in the second half:

Mark Teixeira- Rangers
Rich Harden- A’s
Rafeal Soriano- Mariners

That’s it, folks. Check back tomorrow where I’ll do a report on the Oriole system among other things. In between, be sure to check out those links from above.

[most statistics from this article from ESPN]

Brew Crew Back

2003-07-27T22:53:00.000-05:00

I mentioned earlier this week that I would spend some time evaluating Tampa Bay, looking into their organization. Well, I was doing so recently, evaluating their draft and such. Well in doing so I happened to come across the name Delmon Young.

In doing so I was thinking about that first overall choice. And in the end, I like Richie Weeks, the college hitting specialist. I have likened Delmon Young to a poor man Prince Fielder, product of the same system that has Weeks, the Brewers. While Bud Selig's franchise has been bad since 1992, and until now haven't shown that it will change. Until now...

For the first time in years, you simply can't talk about the best minor league organizations in the game without mentioning the Brewers. While depth isn't exactly their strong point, the group of 12 players at the top is sensational. I spent the weekend looking up to down in this system searching for its future, and I think I got it.

At the Major League level, nothing right has happened for the Brewers. They were hoping this would be the season Nick Neugebauer actually pitches, and that Glendon Rusch turns it around. They wanted Alex Sanchez to play like he was capable of doing, and someone to get in that open third base hole. Well, it hasn't really worked out. So I decided to look at the talent below 27 years old on the roster:

Matt Ford- Rule V pick, pitched well this season, on DL with sprained elbow
Matt Kinney- Had his moments, but overall ERA of 5.26, decent breakout candidate
Ben Sheets- Best pitcher on team, but hasn't really broke through
Enrique Cruz- Rule V pick, only 58 at-bats for the season
Keith Ginter- Decent bench player at best
Bill Hall- A prospect who could get some time at second before Weeks
Wes Helms- Has power, but really can't take a walk
Scott Podsednik- Broke through this season, finally dipping below .300 this week

So that's the whole uninspiring group, yuk! For the future you're looking at Sheets for sure, and Podsednik should have a job in 2004. Matt Kinney will remain in the rotation for awhile, and I'm sure Hall will play some middle infield. Expect Ginter and Helms to tag around as bench guys until real players come through the system.

The Rule V guys have a different outlook. Ford, the leftie from Toronto, will come off the DL and go to rehab. The Brewers will extend that out as long as possible, trying to get Ford some minor league experience before making some September starts. Cruz was the Rule V first pick, but really hasn't played this season. Ned Yost didn't even trust him with the shortstop job, and obviously thinks he is a A, AA player. Look for Cruz to get some September playing time, then bolt to Huntsville (AA) next season.

While the Majors doesn't see much promise, its a whole different story in the minor leagues. Let's look at the Baseball America preseason top 10 prospects, and how they are faring this season:

1. Brad Nelson- .311/.363/.395 1HR in 167 high-A at-bats, just promoted, 10G in outfield
2. Mike Jones- 7-2 2.47 86/94.2 63/45 in 16 AA starts
3. Prince Fielder- .313/.418/.552 with 23 HR in 377 low-A at-bats,
4. Ben Hendrickson- 4-3 2.86 38/44 29/14 in 9 AA starts
5. Corey Hart- .299/.345/.453 with 9HR and 18/23SB in 358 AA at-bats
6. J.J. Hardy- .286/.369/.462 with 10HR in 290 AA at-bats
7. David Krynzel- .301/.380/.400 with 2HR and 35/53SB in 345 AA at-bats
8. Manny Parra- 10-2 2.87 118/122.1 102/19 in 20 low-A starts
9. Ben Diggins- 3-2 2.36 41/45.2 32/16 in 8 AA starts- Will come off DL in August
10. Matt Ford- 0-3 4.33 46/43.2 26/21 in the Majors

That's a pretty good group. Nelson hasn't had the power that Baseball America and the Brewers projected for him this season. He started the year off with an injury, and it might be related to that. Its interesting to see that he has received some left field time, as his career is best profiled there, being sandwiched in between Richie Sexson and Prince Fielder. I'm suprised he was promoted to AA, but there is no questioning his talent. Look for the power to come soon, and he's still high on prospect charts.

Mike Jones has pretty much everything going for him, except an uninspiring K/BB rate. I often ignore that stat for young pitchers, as I assume their Major League pitching instructor will teach them the fine arts on command. Jones is still a great prospect, profiling atop a Major League rotation. His AA prospect mate, Hendrickson, has done well also. I think he's slipped in terms of these other guys, if for no other reason than not pitching a lot.

Prince Fielder and Corey Hart are both having huge seasons, but in different ways. Fielder has exceeded anything that anyone could have expected, and has a decent chance at 40 home runs. He is that league's MVP, and one of the minor league's best players. He already understands the strike zone, and I would like to see Milwaukee management test him with a promotion. Corey Hart's success is because he is handling third base well, and has newfound speed. While he doesn't have the power that some thought was coming, he looks like a 20/20 Major League player. The Brewers have to be very pleased how well he took to third base, and he stays on prospect lists.

J.J. Hardy is the name of this group. Baseball America wrote up and down about how Hardy's defense was above his offense, but I think he's changed that this season. Hardy is now one of the Majors' best shortstop prospects, as he now has developed great power. He doesn't strike out or walk much, having a 35/37 K/BB rate this season. J.J. could have a few Gold Gloves and 25-HR seasons before he quits. Teammate Dave Krynzel has dropped the power he once had, but has great speed. The comparisons to Kenny Lofton won't stop, and I really don't know if I can disagree.

The final group of pitchers have all gone in different directions this season. Parra has shot up prospect lists, dominating competition at low-A. He is a little old for that level, and is another candidate for a promotion to high-A. Ben Diggins was looking great in AA before he went down with injury, and may return in the double-A playoffs. He still is on prospect lists, but has been passed with his time off. I already spoke about Matt Ford, but I should say I think very highly of him also.

I will also throw out a few names that could be added into the mix now. First of all, Richie Weeks. I know he hasn't signed yet, but there is no question that he soon will. The Brewers should wrap it up as quick as possible, and send him to high-A where he can show off his skills. Another draft name is Anthony Gwynn Jr. Gwynn was put to low-A where he is hitting .322/.414/.400. Tony's son has been a doubles machine, but is blocked by Krynzel on the depth chart. He should start taking to his dad's old position, and learn the intracacies of right field.

Finally, the organization's pitcher of the year in 2003 has been Luis Martinez. A 23-year old leftie, Martinez was dominating AA before a recent promotion. His numbers:

Martinez: 8-5 2.58 93/115 116/54 in 20 AA starts

Those numbers look great. Martinez pitched six scoreless innings in his AAA debut, and will undoubtedly get a look in September. He wasn't high on the Baseball America chart before the season, but definitly is now.

One of the things I like about this system is how its all spread around. They have a good group of pitchers, along with prospects at different positions. Letting Corey Hart and Brad Nelson move now were genious decisions, as Major League organizations all too often wait until the prospects reach the Majors to convert them. This club has good seasons ahead of them, and it should all start around 2006, when some players are getting acclamated, and when Prince Fielder hits the show.

My guess is Richie Sexson stays in Brewer uniform until Fielder comes, when Sexson is dealt to an American League ballclub. Geoff Jenkins will soon move to right field, and if he stays healthy could be in the team's long-term goals. Below is a look at my top 12 prospects, and then my projected 2008 Brewers team.

Milwaukee Brewers top 12 prospects

1. Prince Fielder- Power Machine, best power prospect in years
2. J.J. Hardy- Power and defense are a perfect mix
3. Mike Jones- Has number one starter all over hiim
4. Brad Nelson- Dropped on list until power returns
5. Dave Krynzel- Future leadoff man has had big season
6. Manny Parra- Draft and Follow is whiffing people often
7. Corey Hart- Power is down this season, but speed is in his game
8. Luis Martinez- Breakthrough player, will open 2004 in Brewer uni
9. Ben Hendrickson- Must stay healthy to be on team's radar
10. Richie Weeks- Proved himself enough in college to get a mention
11. Tony Gwynn- Showing people he deserved 2nd-round choice
12. Ben Diggins- Injury isn't as important as his talents

2008 Brewers

C- Lou Palmisano
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Richie Weeks
SS- J.J. Hardy
3B- Corey Hart
LF- Brad Nelson
CF- Dave Krynzel
RF- Tony Gwynn

SP- Mike Jones
SP- Ben Sheets
SP- Manny Parra
SP- Luis Martinez
SP- Ben Hendrickson

CL- Nick Neugebauer
SU- Ben Diggins

It looks to me that the Brewers will be making the playoffs about the same time that Bud Selig steps down as commisioner. Who wants to bet that he regains the controls then? Conspiracy? I think not.

Living in a World of Nothing

2003-07-24T22:48:00.000-05:00

Today seemed like the dullest day in baseball history. Sure its interesting Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood got batted around, and the Rangers picked their group of prospects from the White Sox. Yippee!!!

So I thought I'd share one of my thoughts that I was discussing with a co-worker recently. He was suprised to note that it was late July, and both Central divisions had three contenders. I disagreed. My choice is that each division has two contenders, and one phantom team. In the AL, its the Twins, while the NL has the Cardinals. Some might be angry I didn't pick the Chicago teams in that role, but I see it with those two.

The Cubs for instance, have pitching. When Mark Prior gets back they reunite the best rotation in a divisional race, and a strong bullpen. They have made their lineup much better with their new trade, and are a good team. The White Sox, on the other hand, have it all. They have three very good pitchers, with two others whom just get by. Billy Koch is the only real weakness on this team, as the rest of the bullpen passes. And this lineup, with or without the real Paul Konerko, is something to be reckoned with. Call me biased, or whatever you want, but the Chicago teams have realistic chances.

Houston and Kansas City both have one huge thing going for them, history. As Alan Schwarz has pointed out in his recent column in Baseball America, only 6% of teams behind 4-6 games at the break have made the playoffs. Well, Houston and KC are enjoying that type of lead, and would have to play badly to mess it up. But, there is room for error here. The Astros bullpen will have to give at some point, then showing the real weaknesses this rotation has, depth. The Royals pitching is a joke for a playoff team, and its amazing they've won so many games. But now, these teams don't have to play their best ball, and Lady Luck is on their side.

That gets me to the moral of the story, St. Louis and Minnesota. I was raised by the mantra that defense wins championships, and I believe that theory. What's the most important defense in baseball? Pitching. These rotations have massive holes, and I don't think they can be fixed. Walt Jocketty is very good at improving his team in late July, but now it may be too little, too late.

I mean, how long can the offense hold up the Cards? Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, and other position players have kept the team in the race. But with Matt Morris going down for 4-6 weeks, the playoffs went goodbye. Woody Williams is the only decent rotation member, and he can't pitch every game. I am stressing that the A's and Cards must do a Lilly and Mecir for J.D. Drew trade, but I don't know if it will happen. Then, the Cards must look into their farm system and get a Jeff Suppan. They need at least two starting pitchers to stay in this race.

Minnesota is a different story. Although we didn't realize it, Eric Milton's injury killed this team. I loved Milton so much I chose him as my suprise 2002 Cy Young choice, one that backfired in my face. He's a good pitcher, and would probably be ace of this staff. Not inserting Johan Santana in the bullpen was a huge mistake, especially when we discovered the Mike Nakamura-types this club had. Kyle Lohse is a good pitcher, but he's off too much, and gives up way too many home runs. But Brad Radke, Rick Reed, Kenny Rogers, and Joe Mays suck. A Major League club vying for a pennant race should not be employing these guys.

So what would I do in Minnesota? Well, I don't know. Going with Santana in the rotation was huge, and I think Grant Balfour could help as well. One must hope Lohse refinds his stuff, and I would go with Rogers and Radke. They've been there more times than anyone else, and also know the AL the best. I doubt the team will make any trades, although they have the firepower to land a Javier Vazquez more than anyone.

Pitching wins championships folks. Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior. These are the names you build a division-winning club around. And a little bit of history helps too. See ya tomarrow folks.

Following Neyer

2003-07-23T23:03:00.000-05:00

It says Wednesday on top, but its almost Thursday...

In a recent column on ESPN, Rob Neyer explained what each contender needed to do this offseason. Since trades interest me more than anything, I thought I would do my own mini-report. So here goes:

Every trade deadline, all deals work in and out of New York. The Yankees huge $180 million payroll may not allow them to take on huge money, shown by what they've acquired so far. I mean Karim Garcia, Dan Miceli, Ruben Sierra, and Jesse Orosco? That shouldn't help a team in first place. Brian Cashman's largest weakness as a GM is that he tends to forget to put depth into his team, leaving him running for deals around July 31. Nick Johnson is finishing a rehab assignment this week, and then the Yanks will be at full strength. If they're content with Orosco, then that may be it. Except if George can rid himself of Sterling Hitchcock, maybe to St. Louis, then he'll do that.

Theo Epstein is proving himself to be a GM that will make a deal when it presents himself, rather than waiting until the final minute. But although the club says it will wait until August to patch up holes through waivers, I don't buy it. My gut says the Blue Jays will steal some top-notch talent for Kelvim Escobar, as Riccardi friend Billy Beane has upped Escobar's worth with Harang and Joe Blanton rumors. The BoSox need another starter, not a reliever, if they really want to win this. Reacquiring ex-Sox Jeff Suppan may be the answer.

In the central, I really don't see any deals happening this week. Juan Gonzalez's injury may have ended the Royals chance at another bat. I've said all along that Beltran would be traded in December, not July, and I still believe that. The club's bullpen and rotation are inching back to full strength, and although they could use a right fielder, don't count on it. There aren't any great right fielders that wouldn't be too expensive right now, as KC missed the boat on Carl Everett.

The Twins and the White Sox patched up their holes already, and are finished. There's an outside chance Ken Williams falls in love with trading and makes a Sidney Ponson or Cory Lidle deal, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Sox won again today, furthering the likelihood that Bartolo Colon won't go to Boston.

Seattle doesn't make trades when it counts, so I wouldn't expect one now. Over at U.S.S. Mariner, David Cameron mentioned Jeff Conine. I think he's a great fit there, as he could play first against a tough leftie, third occasionally, and left field a lot of the time. He would really help the club who just needs a little push offensively. But my advice would be to promote Chris Snelling in left field, and get Tony Batista cheap in Baltimore. Let me tell you, Cirillo and Bloomquist are not the answers.

Oakland will make a deal, to what extent I don't know. My gut tells me it won't be for Kelvim Escobar or Brian Giles, the two hot-rumored candidates. I could see them getting J.D. Drew from the Cardinals for some pitching, maybe Ted Lilly and Jim Mecir. What we do know is that this rotation can lose both Lilly, Harang, and Halama and be OK. Why? Because they have Harden, Justin Duscherer, and Mike Wood. It never ends on this team. Beane needs to add another outfielder if the A's are going to make the playoffs, and he should deal anyone he can for Drew. But Escobar just doesn't make sense.

Moving to the NL, the Braves should make a deal in the next week. Realistically they could use both another starter and reliever, and they should turn to Baltimore. Imagine the Braves acquiring Sidney Ponson, or Jason Johnson, and Willis Roberts for the stretch run. I have heard Ponson to the Braves rumors, but I don't know if it will happen. I mean, are the Orioles really going to deal their best pitcher. But Jason Johnson and Jeff Suppan could go to Atlanta, replacing Shane Reynolds in the rotation.

The Phillies have patched up their holes and have to go with this team. I would take Brandon Duckworth out of the rotation for Ryan Madson for awhile, but that's just me. Marlon Byrd looks great, but it may be Pat Burrell who dictates this race. Arizona is tough, and Philly is going to have to play some damn good ball.

The Expos will have a tough time on this market, as bats aren't all across the market. Things will spice up if Vladimir Guerrero gets offered, like he probably should, but the team shouldn't deal Javier Vazquez. Vlad is gone, but Minaya must take his chances that a owner comes soon and signs Vazquez. In Florida, it will be hard to make a deal in the next coming days. If San Diego would deal Rondell White that would work, but I wouldn't advise it. If Florida can get back in the race with this team, fine. If not, then start looking towards 2004, and ask yourself why you make the Urbina deal.

The NL Central got shook up when the Cubs and Pirates made a deal on Tuesday. The Astros should do something, probably for the rotation. Going at Jeff Suppan makes the most sense, as they need someone who will eat innings. Jason Lane is their best trade bait, as its apparent he won't get time in Houston anytime soon. And Chris Burke seems to be falling down that same road.

Tony La Russa and Walt Jocketty have to do something. This rotation is in shambles with Matt Morris down. Woody Williams is their only good starter, and Brett Tomko is the only other passable guy. If they get can get through this, I might start talking about their offense as the best of this 21st century. But whether its Lidle, Escobar, or Oakland guys, something must get done!

Chicago has done what it can, and it must wait. Jim Hendry did an exceptionaly job, but I don't think the Cubs have it in them to get 5 games from the Astros. This weekends series is the most important series of the year in the Majors, and it will show the direction this division is going. Cincy isn't going anywhere this year, and it seems apparent that its going to be true for awhile. I don't know what Bowden can do this year, with Sullivan and White down they lost their bullpen trade bait. There's just nothing going for the Reds.

Barry Bonds and company are a tough team to scout. I mean, what is really wrong? With a healthy rotation, there's no serious complaints. The lineup isn't going to get any better, and there's no real place to attack. Matt Herges is help in the bullpen, and nothing can be added there. Brian Sabean has nothing to do, and as much as that may bother him, he should be thankful.

Arizona should do something, but they won't. Letting Tony Womack go was a good move, as was sending Lyle Overbay down to the minors. They'll let Grace and Hillenbrand platoon first base, with Hillenbrand playing third vs. right-handers. Junior Spivey and Danny Bautista are big names to get back. The rotation is at its best right now, and the bullpen is the deepest it has been. This club should win the Wild Card, and can do so without adding another name.

Finally, the Dodgers. They've done what they can with Burnitz and Henderson, and probably have to sit. Pulling a Beltre for Melvin Mora deal would be stupid. These are the cards they've been dealt, and realistically, without Darren Dreifort they can't win. The once great pitching evaporated, and now its down to a good bullpen. Ouch, how far they've fallen.

So, as I was once excited about Juan Gonzalez and Bartolo Colon being moved, I'm not so excited for the next week. With Brian Giles likely to be taken off the block, J.D. Drew and Sidney Ponson are the largest names floating around. I said at the beginning of the year we could weigh a few GMs by whats done by July 31, so my GM grades will be coming out soon. I'm working on the Devil Rays look, and diving into the future of a few teams. Be back again later...

Pirating the Trade Market

2003-07-23T11:25:00.000-05:00

Dave Littlefield has been told by important people to jump ship, and he is doing so. The Pirates owners are losing money on the team this season, and simply can't afford its oversized payroll. The club has dealt a closer, set-up man, center fielder, and third basemen. Team superstar, Brian Giles, is the next rumored to be out, and longtime catcher Jason Kendall is as well.

For now, let's analyze what they've done so far:

Pirates Give Up
Mike Williams- 25 sv 6.27ERA 45/40.1 23/23
Scott Sauerbeck- 3-4 4.05ERA 30/40 32/25
Kenny Lofton- .277/.333/.437 58R 18SB in 339AB
Aramis Ramirez- .280/.330/.448 44R in 375AB
Mike Gonzalez- 14 games between highA, AA, AAA

Pirates Get in Return
Jose Hernandez- .227/.291/.359 39R in 326AB
Brandon Lyon- 4-5 3.93 57/52.2 45/17 9Sv
Frank Brooks- 3-4 2.51 43/61 75/13 at AA
Anastacio Martinez- 3-1 2.25 31/40 37/24 at AA
Matt Bruback- 6-8 3.96ERA 120/125IP 90K/33BB at AAA
P2NL

So, in return for their Major League talent, they get two AA relievers, a grade C pitching prospect, a free swinging free agent, and a middle reliever. I mean, I like Brandon Lyon, and think Bruback has some potential. Brooks and Martinez have some decent K rates to their names. There's talent here, but certainly not enough for what they gave up. Money is the name of the game.

Brandon Lyon will likely become the closer in Pittsburgh. Matt Bruback should make a September start or two. Jose Hernandez will finish the season playing third base for this club. Peter Gammons said the team is abandoning their goal of getting to .500, and just dumping payroll. That's definitly true if they deal Giles, but not necessarily a fact quite yet.

Lyon looks to be Mike Williams at a much cheaper price. He has a H/9 and K/9 that are very similar, and they could be confused to be one in the same. Frank Brooks is a leftie who could as soon as 2004 take Scott Sauerbeck's role in the bullpen. They get to use prospect Tony Alvarez in centerfield now, and Jose Hernandez is better than what he's played at. The team has gotten worse, without question, but not substantially.

But, what's next for Littlefield? There are three names, at least, on his least to be traded for next season. First, is Jeff Suppan. The innings eater starter is doing well in the NL, and would make both the Astros and Cards happy. He should be asking for Jason Lane from Houston, and I don't know what the Cards will give up. They'll try to trade Jason Kendall, but with his huge contract that ain't happenin'. Finally, is Brian Giles. It looks like its Oakland or bust, and Giles will first have to OK that. But right now a deal would need to be Aaron Harang, Eric Byrnes, Freddie Bynum, and John Rheinecker. It's a lot, but Giles is class A talent.

This team will compete soon. They have a great group of prospects, being led by their starting pitching. Sean Burnett, John VandeBoscheten, and Brian Bullington are all good prospects. Behind that, they have Jose Castillo, a middle infielder, and Walter Young a big 1B prospect. There's Ryan Doumit, a catcher, and J.J. Davis an outfielder. The system is very deep right now, and its effects will be felt very soon.

So now that we've addressed the Pirates, I'll quickly move to the Cubs.

The Cubs dealt Mark Bellhorn, Matt Bruback, and a P2NL for Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez. They have patched up their two holes, and knocked out 3B for next season. This is a great trade, as Bruback is about their 15th prospect in a system loaded with depth. The player to be named could be as good as Bobby Hill, but we'll see when its announced.

Chicago is going for it this season, and their chances greatly improved. Mark Prior only has a bruise, and will be back soon. With Matt Morris out in St. Louis, the Cubs have to take that time to jump over the Cards. Houston will be more difficult, but pitching should beat hitting. Matt Clement's second half performance will probably be the deciding factor on whether or not Chicago reaches the playoffs.

I expect a few more trades today, so we'll see what goes down.

Ramblings

2003-07-22T12:01:00.000-05:00

I'm going to start today's blog off with news of my mission. For the next two weeks, including last night's 3-2 win over the Angels, I am going to study the Devil Rays in depth. I will be looking at a pitch-by-pitch account of every game, and given the chance, watch a few games. The team has been the Majors worst since expansion, and I want to see what makes them tick. I want to see Lou Piniella's managing styles, and see how this team could become better.

For a quick overview, I spent last night studying the yearly statistics of this team. They really struggle offensively to not strike out, and especially, to hit extra base hits. From Rocco Baldelli to Toby Hall to Marlon Anderson, every hitter either strikes out too much, or doesn't hit the average amount of extra-base hits. Tampa is 11th in the AL in TB, which further proves my theory.

From a pitching standpoint, the problem is control. Victor Zambrano, the team's #2 starter, is almost looking at a 1.00 K/BB rate. Jesus Colome and Brandon Backe, both who have closer material, can't find the plate half the time. Only Jermi Gonzalez and Joe Kennedy really consistently throw strikes.

Here are some names you'll need to know in my quest with the D-Rays:
* Rocco Baldelli- Household name now. Keeps getting it done, although I don't know where he fits inside a lineup.
* Aubrey Huff- The best player on the team, and one of the most underrated players in baseball.
* Toby Hall- I call his breakout every single season. He doesn't strikeout (or walk), but doesn't get XBH either.
* Pete LaForest- Prospect at AAA ready to take over the 1B/DH scene as soon as September.
* Jeremi Gonzalez- Pick up of the year has become their ace.
* Victor Zambrano- Second starter with huge potential. Has foiled the Yankees twice this season.
* Joe Kennedy- Former ace is getting tagged like no other pitcher in the Majors.
* Travis Harper- Middle reliever who has a few saves. Probably best reliever on the team, better than their "All-Star."
* Lance Carter- Team's All-Star who actually could be a decent reliever. He's not a closer though.

That's it for today's D-Rays report. In two weeks I will really let loose with a thesis and what not. We'll see if I go insane following this team for a long period of time................

Last night Rich Harden made his Major League debut for the Oakland A's. He went seven innings, only allowing one run and getting a no-decision against the first place Royals. I love pitching prospects, and that's why Harden likely stands second on my prospect list right now, firmly behind Royals future ace Zack Greinke. I may overrate pitchers, but I think the media has overdone Joe Mauer.

Sure, the idea of having a catcher win a batting title is fun to think about. I don't see the power potential in this kid, and have a hard time rating Angels prospect Jeff Mathis behind him. A few names who are moving up the list: Edwin Jackson, a 19-year old in AA for the Dodgers, Bobby Crosby, Oakland's future SS, and Chin-Hui Tsao, who would be getting huge hype anywhere except in the Rockie franchise....

Have the Mets found their 1B in Jason Phillips? He can still play a little catcher, boosting his status, and will soon get love from sabermatricians. His power is limited, probably to about 20-25 home runs a season. But, he has 23 walks vs. 24 strikeouts for the season, and has been raking since June. In June, his final numbers were: .322/.408/.444. And in July: .343/.392/.582, those are some big numbers. Ya know, maybe finding a way to deal Mike Piazza would actually be a good thing...

Sammy Sosa is sure striking out a lot this season. His K/BB rate is about 2.00 this season, which would represent his worst total since 1999. He's having an amazing month, in which he has already hit 10 home runs. Remember, this is the man who hit 20 homers in a month, and he won't eclipse that, but it may turn out to be the greatest 1 month in the Majors this season.

The Sammy Sosa July Watch:
.380/.421/.817 10HR 21RBI 71AB 5BB/17K

That's all for now, be back tomarrow...

Philly and Mario Mendoza

2003-07-21T10:59:00.000-05:00

The Phillies traded AA reliever Frank Brooks to the Pirates Sunday for closer Mike Williams

Philly is trying to bolster what has been a pretty good bullpen for the stretch run. See, the Phillies are in what may turn out to be baseball's best race, the NL Wild Card. We have three teams from the East, and two from both the Central and West competing for this final spot in the playoffs. Philadelphia leads the pack right now, with Arizona nipping at their heels. The Phillies suffered a set back when the Diamondbacks regained aces Schilling and Johnson, but I don't think the Phils have played their best ball either.

Starting in February 2002, Philadelphia went on a mass offensive spending spree, signing five players to long-term deals. In the end, $220 million over six years later, this is what they had:

Feb. '02- Bobby Abreu signs 5-year, $64 million extension
Aug. '02- Mike Lieberthal signs 3-year, $23.5 million extension
Nov. '02- David Bell signs 4-year, $17 million contract
Dec. '02- Jim Thome signs 6-year, $85 million contract
Feb. '03- Pat Burrell signs 6-year, $50 million extension

That's a lot of money going to five players, and it raises the bar for their production that much higher. Unfortunately, the Phillies offense has struggled this season, leaving them eighth in the National League in runs scored. This is in no small part due to two of the players listed above, David Bell and Pat Burrell:

Bell: .198/.297/.287 in 293 at-bats
Burrell: .195/.307/.386 in 329 at-bats

And for a little refresher course:

Mario Mendoza: .215/.245/.262 for his career

See, the Phillies are wasting one-third of their daily lineup on Bell, Burrell, and the pitcher's spot. That adds more pressure onto the rest of the hitters, who are just going by their standards. Not only is this devastating, but its unbelievable. I mean, look at Bell and Burrell in 2002:

Bell ('02): .261/.333/.429 in 552 at-bats
Burrell '02: .282/.376/.544 in 586 at-bats

That's an insane drop off. And, Jimmy Rollins is hardly performing at the place he wanted to, second base has been an uncertainty all season, and centerfield was before June 1st, when Marlon Byrd began his current tear. The offense leaned on Thome-Abreu-Lieberthal all season, and it can only get so much back in return. I think its impossible for 3B, LF, 2B to all have the type of half seasons they did, and I look for improvements from Rollins and even Thome. This offense can only go up, and the Phillies, economically, must discover the mystery Pat the Bat has presented to them. $50 million will go to waste unless Burrell starts hitting again.

Because of the hitting turmoils, the pitching has been the key to the Phillies stay above .500. They currently rank second, behind the all mighty Dodgers, in team pitching ERA. They sit comfortably there, in no small part to their starting pitching. Philadelphia has used six starters all season long, and four have made every one of their starts. Brandon Duckworth and Joe Roa split time in the fifth slot, but Duckworth is there now. Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Brett Myers, and Vicente Padilla have been spectacular, yielding one no-hitter and one all-star berth. Their combined numbers:

4 aces: 38-25 3.52ERA 451H/513.3IP 391K/156BB
That really puts the team in position to win. I don't know if they will stick with Duckworth, as they have a good option in Ryan Madson pitching well in AAA. But, no matter what these four starters have kept the Phillies in the race, and that's where Ed Wade should be putting the big dollars to.

The bullpen got a big boost when they heard the former 45 save Mike Williams was coming Sunday, giving Jose Mesa both competition, and some eighth-inning set-up work. The 'pen has been better than expected this season, largely due to the fact that Rheal Cormier, Turk Wendell, Dan Plesac, and Terry Adams have had a rebirth:

Cormier: 2-0 1.46 29H/49.1IP 41K/16BB
Wendell: 1-2 1.59 25H/34IP 15K/15BB
Plesac: 2-0 2.04 15H/17.2IP 17K/6BB
Adams: 1-3 2.72 47H/46.1IP 32K/13BB

It's amazing. Larry Bowa has called Cormier "our MVP", and has depended on Cormier and Adams way too much. Williams will come and lighten the load, and hopefully boost Jose Mesa. Jose has blown three saves this season, and has been tagged for five losses on the season. He has an ERA around five, and must pitch better to keep his job.

I don't know if the pitching can continue at this pace all season long, but I doubt they'll have to, because the offense has room to rise.

The Arizona vs. Philadelphia match up looks very promising, especially since Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf can now battle with the likes of Schilling and Johnson. I don't know where the advantage goes, but the race likely lies in the bat of Pat.

Climbing in Cleveland

2003-07-16T13:15:00.000-05:00

Before I start today I wanna mention I came across a nice new blog called Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT that demands checking out. It's not easy for me to admit that someone knows more about baseball than me, but he does.

It wasn't long ago that Mark Shapiro decided to rid the Jake of superstars all across the diamond and scatter the farm system with prospects. Since then, every prospect-watcher baseball knows has been following their developments, many ranked the organization number one before the season. As its half-way into the season I decided I'd like to write my bit about the rebuilding process of the Cleveland Indians...

On the Major League Level
Cleveland was projected by many sportswriters to finish in third place this season, in front of the lowly Tigers and Royals. Well, the Royals have been great, and the Indians are comfortably in fourth place. Because of unexpected season-long slumps from Minnesota and the White Sox, they sit only four games from second place. But, the 11 game lead the Royals have on them is too much, as if the division was a hope for anyone who follows this team.

Some disappointments on the Major League level:
1) Brandon Phillips hitting- looked rushed and overhyped. Didn't have plate discipline, power, or much speed. Not nearly as excited about him.
2) Travis Hafner- Was expected to take over at 1B. Well, he's been hurt, and when he was there, and in AAA, he doesn't have power. Maybe six months of rest will restore that, maybe not.
3) Jason Davis and Ricardo Rodriguez- The rookies chosen to be in the rotation have been horrible. Davis has a 55/30 K/BB in 105.2 IP, while allowing 16 home runs. Before his demotion Rodriguez also allowed 16 home runs, in 87 innings!
4) Josh Bard- Was expected to hold job for Victor Martinez. Didn't.
5) Omar Vizquel, Ellis Burks, Matt Lawton- Veterans expected to hold lineup on their shoulders haven't. Vizquel and Burks are both gone for the season. Lawton can't hit .250, although he can hit for power, run, and take a walk.

Now for the suprises in Cleveland:
1) Milton Bradley- .328/.435/.502. He's taking walks again, and is the player that Baseball America thought he would be while he was an Expo.
2) Coco Crisp and Jody Gerut- Crisp, acquired for Chuck Finley, had an OBP of .450 in AAA before his call-up. Hasn't been great in Majors, but it will come. Gerut has 10 homers for CLE, in just 219AB.
3) C.C. Sabathia- Plagued with rumors of being overweight, overworked, and overpartied, Sabathia returned to rookie form, landing a spot on the All-Star team.
4) Billy Traber- vs. Yankees: 9IP 1H 0ER 0BB
5) Danys Baez and David Riske- Keys to bullpen. Baez has been a stud in closer role, although I think he should go 2 innings an outing. Riske has been great, posting a WHIP of 1.00 and a K/9 rate of 9.00.

So, the new generation of rookies have underperformed, as have the veterans for the season. But, older youngsters, like Sabathia and Bradley are helping this team, and the club must keep them in Cleveland.

On the Minor League Level

Baseball America is always quick to note than Indians teams have the best minor league winning %, as if that matters. They have a decent amount of prospects, many of whom have seen their stock move this season. Here is the preseason BA top 10 prospects, and their numbers in the minor leagues:

1. Brandon Phillips- just demoted to AAA Tuesday
2. Victor Martinez- .328/.395/.474 in 274 AB (AAA)
3. Cliff Lee- 5-0 34H/41.2IP 42K/18BB 1.94ERA (AA/AAA)
4. Jeremy Guthrie- AA: 6-2 1.44 44/62.2 35K/14BB
AAA: 2-5 6.79 69/50.1 31K/12BB
5. Travis Hafner- .270/.421/.370 in 100 AB (AAA)
6. Ricardo Rodriguez- 0-1 6/8.1 7K/3BB 2HR (AAA)
7. Grady Sizemore- .292/.352/.453 in 353 AB (AA)
8. Billy Traber- Not in Minors this season
9. Brian Tallet- 4-3 4.79 84/81 65K/33BB (AAA)
10. Jason David- Not in Minors this season

Wow, not so good. And, their #1 3B prospect, Matt Whitney, broke his leg horribly in Spring Training and is out for the year. Former #1 prospect Alex Escobar is in AAA working out his knee injury, and is back to his old ways, striking out 103 times in 343AB. And, former Indians prospect Corey Smith isn't doing well in AA, to the tune of .244/.308/.354.

Despite all these hard times in the minor leagues, the Indians were raved as having the best draft of all. They got Michael Aubrey, a smooth hitting first-basemen in the first-round, along with Brad Snyder, an outfielder from Ball State University. Neither have much minor league experience under their belt, cumulatively 67 at-bats, but greatly figure in the Indians future plans. Another plus this year has been the breakout of reliever Kazuhito Tadano. His numbers:

High-A: 2-1 1.89 13/19 28K/3BB
AA: 2-1 1.01 42/44.2 42K/6BB

He's often compared to Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and will likely be a middle reliever in Jacobs Field next season. Their also getting pretty good value frmo Fernando Cabrera, Francisco Cruceta, and Jake Dittler. A revised top-10 prospect list would look like this:

1. Victor Martinez- C
2. Cliff Lee- P
3. Jeremy Guthrie- P
4. Grady Sizemore- OF
5. Michael Aubrey- 1B/OF
6. Fernando Cabrera- P
7. Francisco Cruceta- P
8. Brad Sullivan- OF
9. Kazuhito Tadano- P
10. Brian Tallet- P

That's one man's view at least. Tadano could also be the best from this group, but all of those eight in front of him havee higher ceilings. So suddenly, the Indians future is filled with questions. Will Travis Hafner or Ben Broussard take Jim Thome's old stomping grounds? Will Matt Lawton keep this up? Which pitchers will really make a splash?

But, here is the look of this team down the road:

C- Victor Martinez
1B- Michael Aubrey
2B- Brandon Phillips
SS- John McDonald- yuk!
3B- Matt Whitney
LF- Grady Sizemore
CF- Milton Bradley
RF- Jody Gerut
DH- Brad Sullivan

1. Cliff Lee
2. Billy Traber
3. Jeremy Guthrie
4. Ricardo Rodriguez
5. Fernando Cabrera

CL. Danys Baez
SU. David Riske
SU. Kazuhito Tadano

Not so clear cut anymore. Building a team from the ground up ain't easy, is it Mark? Look for the Indians to be out of the playoffs the next five years.

2003-07-15T09:37:00.000-05:00

So I turn on my TV last night and watch the first seven batters attempt to launch it out of the park. I find myself saying 'this will be the worst Derby ever.' I mean, we had people hit 1's, Bret Boone got 0 and whiffed on a pitch, and barely any homers past the fifth row.

I don't care how many home runs a player hits in the Derby, I like to see the long ball, I like to see upper deck shots. Jason Giambi came up in the first round and hit twelve balls out, including some mammoth shots. U.S. Cellular was a tough place to hit the ball out last night, but Giambi was doing it with ease. The restless crowd was loving Giambi, whom got a standing ovation last night. When announcers Joe Morgan and A-Rod said that he probably wore himself out, I disagreed with them in a heartbeat.

The second round comes along, and its Garret Anderson vs. Jim Edmonds and Albert Pujols vs. Jason Giambi. Looking back on it, the final really happened to be the Pujols vs. Giambi match up. Anderson and Edmonds hit a few balls out, and although Garret won, I was amazed that he hadn't hit the ball more than five rows up. In the first round Anderson hit seven home runs, all of them between 387 and 402 feet. That's amazing. But, Garret has what I think is the sweetest swing in the game today.

Then, came the best Derby matchup ever. Pujols comes to the plate, and I believe hits two home runs by his fifth out. Then, he catches fire. Albert hit some very long balls to left-center, dead center, and right-center. He kept hitting them out, and even in Chicago, the audience gave him a standing ovation during his run. Pujols finished with fourteen homers, and all of them were some of the longest of the night. He instantly became a Derby legend, and inserted himself into future Derbys.

So then the tired Jason Giambi came out. He hit some mammoth shots in his first eight outs, but I believe only had five home runs. He then, with 8 outs, hit five straight balls out of the stadium. He hit another with a ninth out, but couldn't get more than 14 home runs. Giambi became the first man, in Joe Morgan's memory, to hit ten or more balls out in two straight rounds. Giambi is what this is all about, and really gained my respect when he said this about his first round, "I was thinking about quitting after eight, but that's not what the fans came here to see."

Joe Morgan was calling the whole night for people to stop at certain numbers, because ESPN added that rule for some reason. Joe obviously doesn't understand why the Derby is such a popular event. None of those players cared if they won, they wanted to have fun, and give the crowd a show. I will remember Giambi's 12 then 11, and Pujols 14, much more than I will Garret Anderson.

So in the final, Anderson led things off. He showcased his best performance yet, hitting nine balls out of the park. There were some long ones to his credit, and everyone got the feeling nine was too much for Albert. Well, that really was true at five or six outs when Albert had managed two or three. But then he went on a little tear, and had seven with eight outs. He hit a homer, and then made his ninth out. So there it was, Albert needed one or two more home runs. He roped the next pitch down to left center, not putting enough air under it.

Congrats to Garret Anderson.

So now to the plan I devised for the 2004 Derby. Old vs. Young. Forget AL vs. NL or any of that for the Derby. With my idea I promise the best Derby ratings ever. It will cost some money, but it will payback ten fold. It will take some convincing, but it really should be done. For the yound squad I would have some of the stars from this Derby return, Anderson, Pujols and Giambi. Along with that, add the best hitter in the bigs, Alex Rodriguez.

Then, for the old team. Sammy Sosa would do it in a heartbeat, and still is one of the best batting practice hitters ever. Barry Bonds would need to be convinced, but would do it in this circumstance. Ken Griffey hasn't put up the same kind of numbers, but his swing would still allow him to do it. And then, pay a certain legend a few thousand dollars ($5,000?) to return to the spotlight he shined on. Mark McGwire. I mean, look at these match ups:

Garret Anderson vs. Mark McGwire
Jason Giambi vs. Sammy Sosa
Albert Pujols vs. Barry Bonds
Alex Rodriguez vs. Ken Griffey Jr.

That would be how I would renew interest in the Home Run Derby.

Well, I managed to get sick the day before the All-Star Game, but I'm still going. So, look back tomarrow...

2003-07-13T21:52:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone, its Sunday Night, and I recently got back from the Futures Game. I will be going to the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but I was almost more excited about this game. I love the hobby of prospect watching, and this was a great chance to see the minors best.

The only major disappointment was the poor radar gun at U.S. Cellular Field. The stadium gun had only three of the pitchers hitting above 90: Rich Harden, Clint Nageotte, and Denny Bautista. I estimate the gun was off anywhere from 5-8mph, so I couldn't get a great read on the pitchers.

Here are some notes:

- The leadoff hitters of both teams, Ramon Nivar of the Rangers and Dave Krynzel of the Brewers, came out hitting and running. Nivar took the first pitch of the game into the left field corner for a double, then stole third three pitches later. As for Krynzel, he led the bottom half of the first off with a walk, then quickly stole second base. Both of these players were brought in, Nivar by Franklyn Gutierrez and Krynzel by Grady Sizemore.

- The MVP debate for this game is a decent one. Sizemore knocked in the U.S. team's first run, and then their second with a third inning leadoff home run. Steve Smitherman is on the other side of the argument, because he hit the go-ahead home run in the bottom of the sixth inning.

- Alexis Rios hit a game-tying home run for the World team in the fifth inning, and although he struck out his other two at-bats, he impressed me. He unleashed a great arm from center, nearly nailing the speedy Krynzel.

- The two starters, Rich Harden and Neal Cotts, looked a little rusty. Harden ended up with three strikeouts in his inning, and Cotts finished his with two strikeouts. But Harden allowed one run on a hit and two walks, while Cotts' run came on two hits and a walk. Harden has a mean fastball and looked pretty good, but did have some control problems.

- John VanBenschoten of the Pirates showcased an awesome breaking pitch. Remember, when he was drafted he had been one of the better hitters available in the draft. The Pirates took a risk making him a pitcher, but it has paid off tremendously.

- I was more excited to see my #1 prospect, Zack Greinke, then anything else. Greinke pitched one inning, allowing 0 hits while fanning Pete LaForest and Guillermo Quiroz. He threw only two balls in 12 pitches, and looks like he comes after hitters really well. He did throw one curveball that bit way too early, landing near ten feet in front of the plate. But, his other curves were fine, so I didn't take anything away from that.

- The two other pitchers that really impressed me were Chin-Hui Tsao of the Rockies and Denny Bautista of the Marlins. Tsao's fastball looked great, and he also has a nice strikeout curveball. I don't know how well Coors Field will treat him, but he has to be one of the top five pitching prospects in the game.

Bautista, Pedro Martinez's cousin, also looked good. He walked one in an inning, striking out two. He was the tallest player at the game, 6-5, and has a perfect pitcher's body. He struggled last year, but has it all together again this season. He will compete for a spot in 2004, while I predict he'll land in Miami about the same time Dontrelle Willis did.

- The players on the rosters I didn't see (in my prospect ranking): Ervin Santana (Angels), Edwin Jackson (Dodgers), Merkin Valdez (Giants), Lance Nix (Rangers), Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees), and Shawn Hill (Expos).

I'm not going to the Home Run Derby, but I'll likely write about that tomarrow. Have a good Monday...

2003-07-11T11:46:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone, Blogger problems today, so I won't be able to put up a post. But I promise I'm going to write tomarrow, it should be a lengthy article on my view of where mLB marketing should go next. Check back tomarrow!

2003-07-09T22:33:00.000-05:00

Award Time

Hey everyone, it sounds like Jason Varitek and Geoff Jenkins were named All-Stars. Now the only way Thomas plays in his home field is through the back door (Sweeney's injury). Willis and Thomas as back-ups are good, although they should both be in the Midsummer Classic.

But today, rather than another obnoxious notes column, I'll start my midseason report. Today is my awards and predictions version, with more continuing tomarrow. So without further adeiu...

AL MVP
1. Carlos Delgado
2. Bret Boone
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Ichiro!
5. Melvin Mora

Not really all that close here. Delgado is having the best year of his career, and despite Boone and Soriano's great play, its not even close. Melvin Mora beat out Vernon Wells for the final spot, largely because of his insane OBP. Ichiro is an amazing player, and just when I was writing him off, he turned a 180 on me. I'm now a full-time believer.

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Barry Bonds
3. Gary Sheffield
4. Mike Lowell
5. John Smoltz

Pujols has had an amazing half, and far exceeds the amazing Bonds. While Barry eclipsed an amazing record during the first 81 games, Pujols really held up the Cards. Sheffield could be in an argument for 2nd, and is the best free agent in the upcoming class. Lowell has held up the Florida Marlins, possibly eclipsing Carlos Beltran as the most desireable trade option. Smoltz gets the nod over Todd Helton, I mean 33 saves and a 0.97 ERA is amazing.

AL Cy Young
1. Esteban Loaiza
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jamie Moyer

Wow, who would've thunk it? Loaiza is the best $500,000 pitcher in the Majors, and has completely remade himself. Despite Mark Buerhle's slump, Loaiza became the ace of this team, keeping them in the race. Halladay had an amazing streak getting so many consecutive wins. Moyer is having his best season while being over forty years old, which is an awesome feat.

NL Cy Young
1. Kevin Brown
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Mark Prior

Kevin Brown's recovering from injury to be the ace of the Dodgers is amazing. Los Angeles stayed in the race because of his pitching, and his health is essential to LA. Schmidt and Prior have become some of the elite strikeout pitchers in the NL, and Schmidt held up a San Francisco rotation that is less than anticipated. Prior beats out Smoltz, and is the best pitcher under 25 I have ever seen.

AL ROY
1. Rocco Baldelli
2. Hideki Matsui
3. Mike MacDougal

NL ROY
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dontrelle Willis
3. Jae Seo

I included this to make a point. Soon I will write about where MLB should go with their marketing, now that Sosa's image is tarnished. I believe it should start with Rocco Baldelli and Dontrelle Willis. But in the NL, I gave the award to Webb, who had his first 13 starts be quality. He is the best pitcher on that staff, right now, and is the reason behind the D-Backs resurgence. Matsui has played great outfield defense with timely hitting, and MacDougal has been key to the Royals attack. Jae Seo is a bright spot on the Mets team, and has established himself in their future plans.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Tony Pena
NL Manager of the Year
1. Bobby Cox

This is all about exceeding expectations. Pena has given new life to the Royals, and brings a new philosophy to the team. I have heard he goes out between innings to catch the pitcher, and is a great motivator. Its just what the doctor ordered.

Bobby Cox is a wonderful manager whom keeps rebuilding a team that shouldn't be there. Without Paul Byrd and a normal Greg Maddux, this team has the best record in baseball and is going to win the division again. He is the best manager in my lifetime, and Leo Mazzone should become a Hall of Famer now.

Projections

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Royals
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Tigers

AL West
1. Mariners
2. Athletics
3. Angels
4. Rangers

NL East
1. Braves
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Expos
5. Mets

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Astros
4. Pirates
5. Reds
6. Brewers

NL West
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Padres

AL Wild Card
Boston Red Sox
NL Wild Card
Diamondbacks

Playoffs
D-Backs over Braves
Cards over Giants

D-Backs over Cards

Mariners over Red Sox
Yankees over White Sox

Mariners over Yankees

Mariners over D-Backs

That's all for now folks.

2003-07-08T17:32:00.000-05:00

What's up everyone, i'm back from Spain. I missed a lot, so before I get into my midseason reports, I'll start with some notes about what I missed:

* I'm going to the All-Star game this year, so excuse me if I write about it a lot in the coming week. The selections came out while I was gone, and here are my reactions:

- Tampa Bay's choice was Lance Carter? Umm...Aubrey Huff is a versatile slugger who is deserving of an All-Star bid, and Rocco Baldelli is the type of marketable player that MLB needs with Sosa's image tarnished.
- Speaking of marketable players, I believe Dontrelle Willis should have made the team. Dusty Baker picked his ex-work horse Russ Ortiz over Willis, but that makes no sense. The Braves are all over the All-Star roster, and Ortiz's 3.50 ERA isn't all that good.
- Mike MacDougal chosen? There are good arguments for Pedro, David Wells, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens. But my vote is to Clemens, I mean you have to credit a man with an All-Star berth if he netted 300 wins and 4,000 K's in the first half.
- People would have laughed at you three years ago to predict an All-Star game without Sosa and Pedro in it.
- Frank Thomas has a chance to be an All-Star this year, but it should have been a sure thing. He is playing in his home stadium, and his numbers are equal or better than his new teammate, Carl Everett. But with the 32nd player rule, and Mike Sweeney being injured, its likely he'll make the team anyway.
- Jason Varitek is more deserving than Ramon Hernandez.
- Hideki Matsui in center? Vernon Wells should be starting, and Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley should be on the squad. Its amazing how incorporating Japanese players into the game has reshaped the fan base.
- Speaking of Japanese players, Ichiro is a likely candidate for the HR derby. This event is slumping from its Ken Griffey backwards hats days, but I like this idea. I've read quotes from executives who claim that Ichiro could hit 30 HRs a year if he wanted to, and the competition would prove he has legit power.
- My 32nd player votes go to Frank Thomas and Corey Pat... nevermind Orlando Cabrera.

* Corey Patterson can't be eligible for that last spot anymore, because he is out for the season with a torn ACL. This is the most devastating thing the Cubs have suffered all season, and it will likely take them out of the running. Patterson held the offense up on his arms the whole first half, becoming the player he was said to be.

The Cubs will reportedly sign Armando Rios to platoon with Tom Goodwin, and are trying prospect Dave Kelton in center. Kelton has decent speed, and I reckon his defense would be equal to Carl Everett's in centerfield, which isn't exactly a compliment. But, Kelton would have a chance to put himself in future plans with the Cubs, as he could replace Moises Alou at years end.

From a trade standpoint, the best name out there is Carlos Beltran. I doubt a deal will go down netting Beltran, but why not go after Brian Giles. Giles loves Wrigley Field, and can play center pretty well. I think it would cost a lot, like Juan Cruz and two more prospects, but Giles is top-notch talent. They can't just say 'Wait 'Til Next Year'.

* Some interesting things are happening in the divisional and Wild Card races, and I thought I would vaguely go into it before I launch my team-by-team midseason reports.

The AL is looking to be the more clear cut of the two, here is what we know from the American League:
- Boston or Oakland will win the Wild Card.
- The Mariners will be in the playoffs, and either facing Boston or the AL Central winner.
- New York is going to win the AL East...again.
- The Central is the big thing to watch, my choice is the White Sox. Their the best team on paper, and have the most depth around. Adding Sidney Ponson or Cory Lidle would lock that choice.

The National League isn't so obvious. We do know that the Atlanta Braves will win the NL East, and I'm pretty damn sure they'll have the best record in the league as well. Well, what else is different. But the Central isn't so obvious. Roy Oswalt's return helps Houston's chances, while Patterson's injury hurts the Cubs shot. But expect St. Louis to land in October, I mean, who can compete with that offense. The West isn't exactly close right now, and the Giants are the favorite right now.

NL Wild Card? Well, thats between Philadelphia, Montral, Arizona, Los Angeles, Florida, Chicago, Houston, and Colorado. Its going to be the most interesting thing to watch. My belief is it will be between Philly and Arizona, as both didn't play their best ball in the first half. But, it would be pretty sweet to see Florida or Colorado come out of nowhere to win it.

* One reason I say the White Sox are the best in their division on paper is the trades they made in my absence. I seem to be crediting Ken Williams on these deals a lot more than the general public, but living in Chicago I realize how bad the Sox are against decent right-handers, and how badly they needed leftie bats.

Robbie Alomar was traded for Edwin Almonte, Royce Ring, and a low-A infielder hitting around the Mendoza line. This forced D'Angelo Jimenez out, who was then traded Scott Dunn, an Almonte clone. So in essence, Alomar was traded for Jimenez and Ring. That's a lot to give up, but remember that Robbie is hitting .301 against righties, and is still very good at defense. Jerry Manuel was mad at Jimenez for his boneheaded plays in the field, and he had to go. I think he'll be good in Cincinnati, but Alomar is a better choice. And, let's not make Royce Ring out to be Tom Glavine. He's a AA leftie reliever. And remember the team has depth there. Damaso Marte, Kelly Wunsch, and Dave Sanders are in the Majors, Arnie Munoz (Baseball America Winter League Player of the Year) is in AAA, and Ryan Meaux (44/3 K/BB ratio) is now in AA.

Carl Everett commanded a lot, but he's a great player. His playing center means the White Sox have the worst defensive outfield of any contender, but one of the best offensively. Its likely it will cost them Felix Diaz and Anthony Webster. With the emergence of Jeremy Reed and Joe Borchard, Webster is 3rd in the White Sox center field organizational rankings. And Diaz wasn't in the system one year ago, so his loss isn't that devastating. You must understand the Sox traded Ray Durham, Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, and Bob Howry last year to build the minor league depth that would allow them to acquire players this year.

So, I applaud Ken Williams for about the second time ever.

* Two other transactions worth note:
-Todd Jones signed by Boston
- Curt Leskanic to KC for Wes Obermuller and Alejandro Machado

First, Todd Jones. Let me give you some numbers:

Player A
with COL: 49H/40.2IP 27K/18BB 6.20ERA
with next team: 13/22 14/3 0.82ERA

Jones
with COL: 61H/39.1IP 28K/18BB 8.24
with BOS: ?????????

OK, so maybe Player A (Rick White) did a little better with the Rocks, but it proves a point. White ended up serving as one of Tony La Russa's key components in St. Louis' bullpen last year, and there is an outside chance that Jones could have that effect in Boston. He's a good guy to have around the clubhouse, and it proves that Theo Epstein is doing all he can to build depth around this team, which was also signified by the signing of Gabe Kapler.

As for Leskanic and KC, this was a good trade, as the Royals were leaning on Jason Grimsley way too much. Leskanic is a good arm, although he isn't exactly Armando Benitez. The team could have gone after Eric Young as well, and I don't exactly understand why they didn't. Obermuller is a AAA pitcher, who will never legitimately graduate from that level. Days after the trade the Royals replaced Machado, a SS, with Gookie Dawkins. They paid LA two worthless pitchers, so in essence, they gave up three no-name pitchers for a veteran reliever. Not bad.

* And finally, some minor league notes. If you don't subscribe to the Baseball America Prospect Report than you should, as its the best baseball resource the internet has to offer.
- Ryan Wagner, the Reds' first-round choice, is already in AAA. He pitched in five games in AA, not surrendering a run in five innings, while walking two and striking out six. In his first AAA game he allowed two runs in one inning. For some reason the Reds think their in the race, and are racing this guy. I would have left him at AA for awhile longer, and let him compete for a ML job next year, not in September.
- The Mariners have a 17-year old pitching in the short-season NW league. Felix Hernandez was born April 8th, 1986, and is already 3-0 in the league. In his first twelve pro innings he has allowed nine hits and five walks while striking out 17. Holy God!
- David DeJesus and Jeremy Reed are OBP thugs. DeJesus is a centerfield prospect for the Royals who is hitting .327/.457/.518 in AAA, giving the Royals reason for trading Carlos Beltran. Reed, recently wrote about in the new Baseball Prospectus column Prospecting, is rising up prospect lists faster than anybody. In some eyes, he is now a bigger prospect than Sox stud Joe Borchard. In 68 at-bats in AA Reed is hitting .500, has walked five times. Not bad.
- Brandon Claussen has had an amazing run since having Tommy John surgery a year ago. He dominated in high-A with the Tampa Yankees, and did an amazing job with the Columbus Clippers in AAA. He was recently called up to the Bronx, and then optioned back down. His meteoric rise was said by Will Carroll to be "possibly bigger to Tommy John surgery than Tommy John."
- Rick Ankiel has had three straight quality starts in AA, and may be back. He is supposedly in the best mind set in years, and could be back. This would be huge to the St. Louis franchise lacking starting pitching. I hope every baseball fan in the world is cheering for this guy.

That's it for today, tomarrow I'll likely be unveiling my midseason awards and predictions.

2003-07-01T10:45:00.000-05:00

Hey readers, I just wanted to let you all know that I am in España for the week. I will be back on Sunday, and maybe have a post once before then. In that time I´ll be writing my midseason reports on teams, players, and the trade market. Tune in next Monday for the 7-day extravaganza ending with my trip to the All-Star Game!

2003-06-26T06:47:00.000-05:00

Head over to the Cub Reporter today, and check out my column.
Heating Up in the Desert
Yesterday the Arizona Diamondbacks extended their winning streak to eight games, inching within five games of the NL West lead. I wrote on Monday about the White Sox chances of capturing the AL Central, and today I will do the same with the D-Backs.

One problem the D-Backs have, as opposed to the White Sox, is they have real competition in front of them. The Giants and Dodgers are very good teams, but both can be beaten. By exposing the Giants’ rotation and Los Angeles’ offense, you can win the division. But remember, this team has won eight games in a row, and they aren’t against any bad opponents. They beat the Astros twice in Houston, then swept both the Reds and Astros in Bank One Ballpark. They now move on to the Tigers, whom won’t be a hard opponent. Let’s examine why:

Offense: 5.63 Runs/Game 81H, 9H/G
Pitching: Starting: 61.1IP 44H 43K/12BB 3.23ERA
Bullpen: 21.2IP 16H 24K/12BB 1.66ERA

And that would be the short reason. Another, is they have a consistent rotation for the first time all year. Despite Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling’s injuries, and Byung-Hyun Kim’s trade, and organization has found out a lot about themselves. They now have Brandon Webb, John Patterson, and Andrew Good in the rotation, and Oscar Villareal in the bullpen. They are comfortable with those pitchers, and they have invaluable Major League experience for future years. This opens the door for a possible Curt Schilling trade in the offseason. Also, add Miguel Batista and Elmer Dessens to that rotation, and you wonder why they would do so good.

Remember, this team doesn’t have Johnson and Schilling. Those two come back after the Break, and will be welcomed to open arms. I think that one may replace Patterson and the other Good, but that’s just a guess, as all three rookies are legit candidates to remain in the rotation. Their aces are better than any players in the NL West, so they immediately increase the chances of improvements.

And, the bullpen isn’t everything it could be either. The team has come across Jose Valverde in closing, and he has flourished, saving eight games without any problems. The 23-year old fireballer has allowed only two runs in twelve innings, but hasn’t appeared in a loss yet. When Matt Mantei comes back, they must make a decision, as both are viable options for the closer spot. Mike Myers has struggled in the leftie role, something that normally doesn’t happen. But, Myers should improve, as he is one of the best relievers in the league consistently. Villareal is a solid middle reliever, almost taking the role Miguel Batista left behind. That leaves them to decide from Stephen Randolph, Brady Raggio, Ricky Bottalico, and Eddie Oropesa. But remember, unsung Mike Koplove is normally a great reliever also, taking a similar role that Brandon Donnelly takes in Anaheim. This is a good bullpen that will be on the way up when Mantei and Koplove return from injury.

The team has also had injuries on the offense, allowing them to build more options for the future. For example they have discovered Alex Cintron, a personal favorite for years, and decided they want him in the middle infield. That may allow them to trade Tony Womack, bringing back a solid return for the race. They have also looked at Robby Hammock and Matt Kata, whom could possibly have bench roles in the future. The catching situation has been OK, as Chad Moeller is a better catcher than anticipated. Right now Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey, Sean Hillenbrand, and Danny Bautista are on the DL, which creates problems.

This all proves one thing: the Diamondbacks have depth. They have fought their way back in this lineup despite injuries, and when the All-Star Break comes around, their team will get better immensely. They could possibly trade Womack and David Dellucci right now, and Curt Schilling in the offseason. While we all thought ownership would have economical problems for awhile, due to too many deferred payments, an improving farm system will help ease the pain.

Overall, look for Arizona to be in the mix for both the division and Wild Card this year, ultimately losing and trading Curt Schilling away.

2003-06-25T06:50:00.000-05:00

Examining the Streak
Carlos Delgado is having an amazing year, and if the year ended today he would be the hands-down AL MVP. But, Roy Halladay is making a run for the Jays to have both the MVP and Cy Young.

In his last 11 starts, Roy Halladay is 11-0. In 1997, Brad Radke tied the modern day record winning 12 consecutive victories. With a win Friday against the Montreal Expos, Halladay will tie Radke’s record. To win that many starts in a row, it takes run support, a bullpen, and a lot of innings being eaten. Plus, easy teams never hurt that much.

A look at Halladay’s 11, and the teams’ records of which he beat:

1) Texas (27-47)= 7IP 7H 4ER 5K/1BB
2) Texas (27-47)= 7IP 6H 5ER 5K/1BB
3) Anaheim (36-37)= 7.2IP 6H 2ER 6K/0BB
4) Kansas City (38-34)= 7IP 5H 2ER 7K/0BB
5) New York (44-30)= 7IP 9H 2ER 5K/0BB
6) Chicago (35-40)= 9IP 7H 1ER 7K/1BB
7) Boston (42-32)= 6.2IP 10H 7ER 5K/2BB
8) Cincinnati (36-38)= 8IP 8H 1ER 7K/2BB
9) Pittsburgh (31-43)= 8IP 8H 1ER 9K/1BB
10) Baltimore (33-40)= 7IP 6H 2ER 5K/0BB
11) Montreal (43-34)= 8IP 4H 0ER 6K/0BB

Not exactly as dominating as you might think. He only shut the opposite team out one time, and only had 8 quality starts. But, when you pitch for the league’s best offense, wins come abundantly. No question Halladay is a great pitcher, but there is no doubt that he has gotten some help. A look at the helping factors during his run:

Run Support: 7.63 R/G
Opposite Team Win %: .482
Bullpen: 16.2IP 9ER

The main assistance is coming from the offense, as the bullpen did little to help, led by Delgado. Despite Joe Morgan’s best efforts to convince otherwise, its not just home runs that fuels the Jays’ offense. They are having great years from Delgado, Vernon Wells, Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, and the catchers. Some could argue that many of these players can’t keep up this pace, and I can’t argue with that. This is a team that can’t stay in the race, and I can definitely see a Shannon Stewart for Aaron Harang trade happening at some point. But, look out in 2004 for this team, Riccardi has them looking up.

But back to my original thought, the winning streak. Here is what Brad Radke did in his 12 starts:

1) ANA (84-75)= 9IP 6H 1ER 6K/3BB
2) HOU (84-78)= 8IP 6H 1ER 5K/1BB
3) PIT (79-83)= 6.2IP 7H 2ER 5K/1BB
4) CLE (86-75)= 8IP 6H 2ER 5K/1BB
5) CWS (80-81)= 6.2IP 8H 5ER 6K/1BB
6) MIL (78-83)= 7IP 4H 2ER 3K/2BB
7) CLE (86-75)= 7IP 8H 2ER 5K/2BB
8) CWS (80-81)= 7IP 5H 1ER 3K/2BB
9) OAK (65-97)= 9IP 5H 0ER 10K/0BB
10) BAL (98-64)= 9IP 7H 2ER 6K/1BB
11) KC (67-94)= 7IP 3H 1ER 3K/3BB
12) TOR (76-86)= 7IP 5H 0ER 4K/3BB

I think thats a bit more dominating. Remember this streak came on a team that only ended up winning 67 games, which makes it odd that he received 7.5 runs per game. And his opposing team win percentage was a little better at .497, but hardly dominating. Halladay’s streak is far from over, but I am going to say that Radke’s was more impressive.

Halladay is currently battling Esteban Loaiza for the AL Cy Young, and my vote goes to Loaiza, whom won his eleventh game last night. But, Roy will pitch in the All-Star game, and may be one of the five best young starters in the Majors. It must be nice for Riccardi to have his own Barry Zito to build around (now if he could just get a Hudson and Mulder too). Here is a look at the Cy Young race:

Halladay: 11-2 3.57 125H/121IP 96K/17BB 1.17WHIP 16HR
Loazia: 11-2 1.99 84H/108.1IP 90K/26BB 1.02WHIP 6HR
Jamie Moyer: 10-4 2.93 78H/95.1IP 70K/32BB 1.15WHIP 9HR

Well, who would have predicted that threesome. But, while Halladay may not be the choice, I must give credit to him on what is a great start. Its an amazing streak, but its not the best of the decade as I have heard over the week. Finally, here is the final breakdown of the Radke vs. Halladay streaks:

Halladay (’03)= 11-0 2.95ERA 1.02WHIP 67K/82.1IP 7.5R/G
4 teams above .500
Radke (’97)= 12-0 2.12ERA 1.01WHIP 61K/89.1IP 7.2R/G
5 teams above .500

Pretty close, but you have to give the edge to Radke. But for Blue Jays fans I thought I would add this to the end:

Radke 2003: 5-6 5.74ERA 1.45WHIP

Some other news to finish with: Barry Bonds has become the exclusive outfielder of the 600HR/500SB club, Fred McGriff goes on the DL for the first time in his 18-year career, and Juan Gonzalez ruins Omar Minaya’s dream. Peace...

2003-06-24T06:49:00.000-05:00

Resurgence
The Chicago White Sox are still in the thick of things in baseball’s worst division. The Twins aren’t playing well, and the Royals are just good enough to hang around. But its Chicago that really intrigues me, as they are yet to play good baseball.

Mark Buerhle, Billy Koch, Rick White, Paul Konerko, Jose Valentin, Joe Crede, Carlos Lee, and even Magglio Ordonez. Those eight players are drastically below expectations this season. That raises a problem when it happens to be your projected ace, closer, middle reliever, and 4-8 lineup spots. But still, Chicago is above .500 and only five and one-half games out.

Esteban Loaiza was signed in Spring Training simply to give Jon Rauch some competition in Spring Training. But, he has transformed himself to a possible 20-game winner, and has become a better acquisition than Bartolo Colon. Rauch? He is pegged in the White Sox 7th starting spot, right behind left-hander Josh Stewart. Another minor league invite, Brian Daubach, is playing first or left against right-handers. And two of Ken Williams better trade acquisitions, D’Angelo Jimenez and Damaso Marte, are playing big roles. While Ken Williams takes a lot of heat, sometimes rightfully so, some of his less heralded moves have kept Chicago in the race.

But watching the White Sox I see one huge problem, fundamentals. The team can’t bunt, steal, or throw well. They can’t finish a game they’re leading, or come back from behind. They alienate players, such as Jimenez and Frank Thomas, and aren’t a real team. All of these problems reflect upon their manager, Jerry Manuel. Manuel’s calm demeanor would work in some atmospheres, but not on a team with all the potential in the world, but can’t execute properly.

For example, in the Boston series not too long ago, I saw perfect examples of the 2003 version of the Chicago White Sox. In the final game, which they ended up losing, they had men on first and second with no outs, but failed to score a run. A botched bunt by Jimenez, and a few flyouts later the Red Sox had retained their lead. Earlier in the game the White Sox had loaded the bases with no outs, but only scored one run. Its horrible to turn on a TV, and watch horrible baseball, knowing the team has pennant-winning potential.

But what can’t be ignored is that despite problems with the coaching staff and one-third of the roster, the White Sox are competing. The team simply can’t perform this badly the whole year, so it would appear that Chicago stock is rated a "buy." But Ken Williams and company have some interesting decisions to make. Will this team be close enough to take on players and add payroll, or will they sell out?

Colon, the headline acquisition of the winter, is very tradeable within the next month. The team has made it known they will not re-sign him, but they can’t win the division without him. Tom Gordon is also attractive to teams, but plays an important role with the ChiSox. Jose Valentin and Tony Graffanino, both free agents to be, could be tracked easily. Finally, will Jerry Reinsdorf’s hesitance to sign pitchers to long-term contracts cost them Esteban Loaiza?

My belief is the Sox should hold onto Colon and Loaiza, taking the compensation for Colon, and re-sign Loaiza. They also should retain Tom Gordon, as I saw him touch 96 mph vs. the Cubs. I would keep Graffanino, but I can see dealing Valentin. They need a leftie bat, and also a center fielder, which makes Kenny Lofton attractive. And, why not trade Paul Knoerko if they can get good return.

Tune in this week, as the Sox need two out of three in the Metrodome.

Sunday Night Notes

Armando Benitez is on the trading block, and Sunday’s performance showed what he was made of:

Sun. vs. RH: 3 outs

Sun. vs. LH: 4 walks

If a team is considering trading for Benitez, or signing him in the off season, it should be as a part-time reliever. He would be a great player to come in vs. right-handers, but he is not a closer. A set-up man, albeit a large one, not a closer!

2003-06-19T00:39:00.000-05:00

Quick Blog
Hey everyone, today is gonna be a short post, because I have been bogged down with work. I must say I did get out of the house for a little Sox game yesterday (White vs. Red). The ChiSox look good, and are now within 5.5 games of first place. This is a team filled with .230 hitters, and with Mark Buerhle struggling for the first time. Ken Williams will have some interesting decisions, but I think this will be the same team in two months. Once Paul Konerko and Jose Valentin get turned around, they will be OK. Centerfield is a huge problem, and Kenny Lofton would be a great fit...again.

The Royals put themselves within one game, beating the Twins today. I said all along that the Twins would win this division, but they are not playing good right now. There is some lineup certainty, and the rotation is crumbling. Johan Santana must be put in the rotation, and Justin Morneau and Bobby Kielty should be full-time lineup members. Doug Mientkiewicz should be traded, to the Padres, for some bench talent.

Larry Doby died today. Doby was the second African-American player ever, and the first black American League player. He was a pioneer to the sport, and one of the most underappreciated players in history. He was a great hitter, and an even stronger man. God bless him and his family, and we should all thank him for the advancements to the game he made.

2003-06-18T05:37:00.000-05:00

Standing View
The Yankees have a chance to run away with the AL East, and it will start in the next 15 games. A look at the next 15 games of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees:

Boston
White Sox- 2
Phillies- 3
Tigers- 4
Marlins- 3
Devil Rays- 3

Yankees
Devil Rays- 2
Mets- 3
Devil Rays- 4
Mets- 3
Orioles- 3

Blue Jays
Orioles- 2
Expos- 3
Orioles- 4
Expos- 3
Tigers- 3

All those are relatively easy, but playing six against both Tampa and the other New York helps Joe Torre’s boys a lot. I think Boston could drop about six of those games, but New York shouldn’t lose more than 2, total. The Blue Jays could lose about four, and be just as much in this race come the All-Star Break.

Peter Gammons wrote in his last column that Toronto is preparing to sell some of their players, or to take on talent for the stretch run. I think Shannon Stewart’s recent injury showed they can trade him if they get pitching in return. Riccardi will do anything for pitching at this point, but really can’t add salary until the year is over. I will maintain with my statement that 2004 and 2005 will be exciting in Toronto, and that the Jays should sell out this year.

I really don’t understand the NL Central. From everything I’ve ever known, good pitching beats good hitting in the end. But, it seems that the Astros and Cardinals can both get by without rotation depth. I said last week that Houston is a Sidney Ponson from the division, and I believe that. The Cards get Chris Carpenter back soon, and he could go a long way to deciding the champion. Ron Villone starts for the Astros on Wednesday, yikes!

Don’t look now, but the Royals are within two games again in the Central. They are 7-3 in their last ten, and their offense is doing the best it has this season. Rumors are going that Kansas City is about to make a deal for Curt Leskanic, but they are reluctant to take on money. This is a team that could use trading Joe Randa, Jason Grimsley, and maybe Michael Tucker. But now that they’re drawing people, they can’t white flag.

The Dodgers are going on another run, making them the streakiest team in the Major Leagues. Remember, about 20 of their wins have been had on two streaks longer than five games this year, quite an impressive number. But, that’s what will happen when a team has such great pitching and leans on their hitting like that. But remember, their six wins have been against the Indians and Tigers, not anyone great. I write this as Los Angeles is up 4-0 in the sixth inning, which will bring them within one game of the Giants.

Just like Houston and St. Louis in the Central, the Giants lack rotation depth completely. Damian Moss has dead arm and needs to be waken up, and while Rueter and Schmidt are good the rest is shaky. They need one starting pitcher, but they can’t add any talent. The Dodgers on the other can add players, because they didn’t spend money this offseason.

That’s all folks, I’ll write tomarrow...

2003-06-17T05:43:00.000-05:00

Early Week Ramblings
Despite an ESPN broadcast, the Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves series was not well hyped. This lists a few flaws in baseball, mainly located in their marketing department. I’ll allow those boys at Baseball Prospectus to handle the marketing advice, while I’ll tackle the baseball. Instead of a minor league report, here’s an inside MLB...

In years past, the Braves would love series in which ten runs were scored...total. But with the offense being their strength, for the first time in their decade run, it ended up losing them the series. In all three games, the starters lasted between seven and seven and two-thirds innings. In game one, Freddy Garcia had his best start of the year. Saturday, we saw the Mike Hampton of old, and Sunday was a look at baseball’s 2003 breakout pitcher, Gil Meche.

Was this a look at the World Series? No. I was a seller on the Mariners before the season, and I am now. I chose the Braves third in the division, and while they will win the NL, they aren’t the best team there. Seattle needs Freddy Garcia to pitch like the 2001 version for them to make the World Series. I don’t see that happening. The Braves just need stability. A rotation with Maddux-Hampton-Ortiz and Paul Byrd would be nice, but it has yet to happen.

But, the slugging on both teams is World Series caliber undoubtedly. The Mariners have Edgar Martinez, who is quietly having the year of his career. Aside him is Bret Boone, John Olerud, and that Ichiro Suzuki character. They have solid role players in Carlos Guillen, Randy Winn, and Mike Cameron as well. The Braves? How about Rafeal Furcal, Marcus Giles, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Andruw to start your order? Not bad. Then, throw in Javy Lopez with 19 home runs. Wow.

This was the best series in a long time, but Major League Baseball had one game on national TV, and wasn’t watched like previous Sunday Night Baseball games. C’mon Bud, its time to bring attention back...

So AL Interleague play brings back two issues: the designated hitter and interleague play itself. The DH has been a rule for a long time now, and its not likely to be changed anytime soon. But, I still believe that it should be a uniform rule. Whether you institute it or not, there should be one rule across all of baseball.

Interleague play is good, but overdone. I love the idea of bringing the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and others on a world tour, but other teams don’t draw well. Why not store the Devil Rays, Expos, Marlins, and White Sox at home to face Chicago, New York, Boston, and Los Angeles? The most important thing is drawing fans, so do it! But who would honestly go to a Indians-Padres game, or Pirates-Tampa? I know that would make things difficult, so I don’t know if it would work. But I could compliment Bud, trying to recreate rivalries is a good idea. Nothing is like a White Sox-Cubs battle...

Speaking of recreating rivalries, I want to mention something I’ve been thinking for a long time. Can baseball please move Kansas City to the AL West and the Brewers back to the AL Central. There has been talk of the Diamondbacks moving, but they are just coming off a World Series win. The Brewers, Selig’s team, could be helped by the move. They would go to one of the easiest divisions in baseball, and institute the DH, which would help Prince Fielder’s acceleration to the bigs. The Royals should move to the AL West, because the Royals and Athletics were once the biggest rivalry in the Majors. But hey, the Royals and Tigers ain’t bad....

Anyone watch Dontrelle Willis yesterday? Wow, he has just become my favorite pitcher. He is vibrant, athletic, and an extremely smart pitcher. He is going to win the NL Rookie of the Year, at the age of 21. He doesn’t walk many people, because he is able to throw his slider for a strike. He can throw the fastball to any point, and struck Cliff Floyd out three times on high fastballs. Cliff Floyd. The Cubs gave up something special....

Finally, I’d like to point out that you can watch the NHL Draft on ESPN 2 on Saturday. THE NHL DRAFT!! I don’t know one person that will watch that, but I know dozens that would watch at least the first couple rounds if Baseball televised. The most important thing for Selig to tackle is doing two things: allow teams to trade picks, and televise the damn thing! Plus, ask those geniuses at Baseball America to take the Mel Kiper role.

I’ll be back tomarrow...

2003-06-16T21:42:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone, I was outta town this weekend and couldn't make a post this morning, I'll be back tomarrow with a Minor League report...

2003-06-13T01:05:00.000-05:00

Phillips Fired and More Notes
Hope everyone has a good weekend, I’ll have exciting news on Monday about some of my writings being found elsewhere!

- Aaron Gleeman (from Aaron’s Baseball Blog) had a nice piece yesterday about Hideki Matsui and the groundball to flyball ratios in hitters. I ran the numbers for pitching, and found pretty predictable results:

Groundball Specialists
Derek Lowe- 3.70
Kevin Brown- 3.63
Zach Day- 3.59
Brandon Webb- 3.20
Shawn Estes- 2.32
Aaron Cook- 2.18

Flyball Specialists
Jarrod Washburn- .68
Ryan Franklin- .75
Javier Vazquez- .80
Ted Lilly- .81
Kris Benson- .82
Jason Schmidt- .85

If you’re a groundball pitcher, the most important thing is a good defense behind you. For flyball pitchers, the ballpark dimensions are most important, reason for Schmidt succeeding in San Francisco, rather than his previous stops in Pittsburgh and Atlanta. I was suprised by Brandon Webb, whom I haven’t seen yet, and Shawn Estes, who is having a very good year.

- Jose Valverde is closing games in Arizona while Matt Mantei is on the DL. Arizona has been struck by the injury bug this season, placing pitchers on the DL nine times so far. Anyway, I like Valverde a lot, he has always had a high strikeout rate and seems ready for the role. His career strikeout numbers:

1997: 19K in 19IP (9.00 K/9)
1998: 56K in 51IP (9.88)
1999: 50K in 32IP (14.06)
2000: 63K in 44IP (12.88)
2001: 72K in 41IP (15.80)
2002: 65K in 48IP (12.19)
Career: 12.5 K/9IP

- Alex Sanchez has been running like crazy since he got to Detroit. In a Mailbag on Baseball Prospectus, a reader pointed out that Sanchez’s career against the Padres, Trammel’s old team, may have had to do with his acquisition. Well, Trammel is playing with his new toy, sending him 14 times in his first 12 games.

- Everyone look out, Jesse Foppert threw 123 pitches against the White Sox on Wednesday.

- Felipe Alou is trying everything and anything to protect Barry Bonds in the lineup. Alou has tryed six different hitters behind Bonds, even trying Ray Durham there this last week. It seems that Marquis Grissom has been given the leadoff job, while Ray has moved in front of Bonds. I would like the move if Marquis was the 1993 version of himself.

Another move I saw that I liked this week was Frank Robinson’s bullpen treatment. In a close game against the Anaheim Angels, Robinson brought in Rocky Biddle during the 7th inning. I have always thought that some of the more important outs can be had in the seventh and eighth, and wondered why teams didn’t send out their closers then.

- Here’s a quick look at the AL batting race through Friday:
1. Melvin Mora- .370
2. Bill Mueller- .348
3. Hank Blalock- .345
4. Ichiro Suzuki- .335
5. Frank Catalanotto- .331
The top 10 list also includes Michael Young, Eric Byrnes, Rocco Baldelli, and Milton Bradley! What the Hell is going on?

- Another interesting managerial move has been Bob Boone’s attempt at finding a leadoff hitter. This week’s attempts? Sean Casey. Yep, Casey joined the seven-man list yesterday. They include, in order, Felipe Lopez, Barry Larkin, Adam Dunn, Ryan Freel, Aaron Boone, Juan Castro, and Casey. This team needs a Joe Thurston, possibly for Jose Guillen?

- How weird was the Astros-Yankees no-hit game? Roy Oswalt started the game with one great inning, then left for Pete Munro, Kirk Saarlos, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Billy Wagner. But, the Yankees look horrible.

Thursday, they beat Houston 6-5, but didn’t look that good. With one out and a man on third in the first inning, Richard Hidalgo had a short fly to centerfield. Morgan Ensberg guessed that Hideki Matsui would react the wrong way, which was the correct assumption. Matsui lobbed the ball to Derek Jeter, who didn’t even have time to then throw home. The Yanks won the game, but those things never happened in the past.

- It was great to see Justin Morneau and Jose Reyes called up from AAA this week. Reyes has begun his young career two-for-thirteen, with both hits in his opening game. Morneau on the other hand, has gone five-for-eight, and looks amazing. This kid had 19 home runs in 200 minor league at-bats, and the Twins don’t think they can get him consistent playing time.

I read an article recently that Kevin Towers, the Padres GM, wants a great defensive first basemen for his infield. Why not trade Doug Mientkiewicz to the Padres for Mark Loretta, the second basemen the club needs?

Now to the transactions and rumors...

- Steve Phillips was fired today. In my first column on this site, oh about four weeks ago, I called for the firing of both Phillips and Lamar. The Mets listened first, as they have made Jim Duquette their interim GM. I look for the interim tag to be taken off at the end of the season.

Duquette’s early job will be judged by what he does before the trade deadline. Robbie Alomar, Armando Benitez, and Jeremy Burnitz should all be available by the break. Alomar has been rumored to the Dodgers, where the team could likely get Joe Thurston in return, or possibly add on another player for Adrian Beltre. Benitez will go to St. Louis or Boston, for God knows what (Ankiel?). And Burnitz, well, he’ll likely be on the waiver wire.

- Matt Williams retired today, he didn’t want to go anywhere because he has full custody of his children and didn’t want to leave them. He will finish with 1845 hits, 374 home runs, and four Gold Gloves. My bet is that he comes back next season, as he can still hit lefties very well. I mean, Hell, Todd Zeile still has a job.

- The Ugueth Urbina rumors won’t go away. It seems like the Yankees may pull the trigger soon, possibly sending Brandon Claussen to Texas in return. This would be a very, very good trade for the Rangers. They aren’t going anywhere, and need to get all the pitching they can for Urbina, Gonzalez, Everett, and Palmiero.

- Two last rumors: Jeffrey Hammonds isn’t getting much press, but could land with the White Sox to sure up their job. They could also sign the recently released Juan Acevedo of the Yankees.

- Seven moves this last week:
Nick Bierbrodt to Cleveland- I’m really suprised the Devil Rays gave up on him, as he was once an OK prospect. The Indians are doing a great job rebuilding their team.

Jose Lima to Kansas City- Whatever. It seems like the Royals are now trying hard to not get to .500. Remember, winning 81 games ensures Mike Sweeney of returning in 2004.

Dennys Reyes to Arizona- They can use all the arms possible, he has a little upside I guess. He did try out for their team before Spring Training.

John Valentin to Philly- With Tyler Houston on the DL, they pick up Valentin, who is not the player he once was.

Michael Rivera to White Sox- Good waiver claim, as Rivera’s 25 home run days were only two years ago. This could yield another Sandy Alomar trade, as Rivera could team with Olivo for awhile.

Matt White traded to Seattle- The Red Sox at least got a player out of their Rule V pick. Epstein has already admitted that keeping White and trading southpaw Javy Lopez was a bad move.

Jeff Liefer to Tampa- The reason they waived Bierbrodt was to get Liefer. He hasn’t produced the big-time power numbers he once showed since 2001, but they are there. He could play first base against right-handers and possibly hit twenty-five home runs. A good claim.

That’s it folks, see ya on Monday...

2003-06-12T01:27:00.000-05:00

All-Star Time
By making the week's schedule off yesterday, I thought it would be a good time to present my All-Star picks for this season. I am planning to be at the All-Star game this year, so my increased interest is 100% due to that.

I don't have a formula computing previous season's numbers and this season's, I just go off opinion. I like to go off this season, but in a close race I will look at career numbers. I also don't like to let OBP dictate my pick, as some of the best hitters simply don't need to walk. OK, my top three for all positions:

AL Catcher
1. Jorge Posada- .267/.399/.555, 44RBI
2. Jason Varitek- .284/.350/.525, 31RBI
3. Greg Myers- .358/.438/.560, 23RBI
Posada is the best catcher in this group, and the best in baseball. He is one of the top switch hitters in the league, but is having a productive season despite a low average. Varitek got the nod over Myers simply because he has had more time to get at-bats, while Myers must deal with a Tom Wilson platoon. Some may choose Myers, reason for his possible first berth ever.

AL First Base
1. Carlos Delgado- .324/.439/.672, 72RBI
2. Mike Sweeney- .318/.433/.518, 39RBI
3. Rafeal Palmiero- .269/.383/.529, 39RBI
Delgado's numbers are just fun to look at. He is having an MVP season, and the RBI total is disgusting. He is by far and away the best hitter in the group right now. Giambi lost out to Palmiero partially because of Raffy's 500th shot, and I believe legends should get a little lee-way. Sweeney is having a pretty good season for a pretty average team.

AL Second Base
1. Bret Boone- .318/.384/.604, 50RBI
2. Alfonso Soriano- .295/.351/.544, 42RBI
3. Michael Young- .328/.365/.475, 29RBI
Remember when we wanted to elect AL SS at second base because there were no good options? Those days don't exist anymore, as there are only two candidates at each position. Statistically, Boone leads Soriano in every category outside of stolen bases, and Boone's defense is ten times better than Soriano's. Young is having a career year, and he will be in baseball until his mid-30s now.

AL Shortstop
1. Nomar Garciaparra- .315/.347/.559, 41RBI
2. Alex Rodriguez- .299/.383/.568, 38RBI
3. Carlos Guillen- .305/.363/.426, 22RBI
The first time that on-base percentage mattered. Nomar has better numbers, but Rodriguez will start the Midsummer Classic because he walks a lot. And don't give me power as an excuse, Garciaparra has more total bases. Does anyone realize that Nomar has eight triples right now? Rey Ordonez had a fighting chance at the third slot, but I like Guillen's versatility as an All-Star bench player.

AL Third Base
1. Troy Glaus- .297/.383/.579, 43RBI
2. Hank Blalock- .353/.410/.575, 40RBI
3. Aubrey Huff- .304/.366/.575, 35RBI
I was tempted to go with Blalock until I realized that a year ago he was in AAA. Glaus is having a superb season, and is definitly an All-Star. Blalock is a good bench player, remember, he can play second base! Aubrey Huff would be the talk to any team outside of Tampa Bay, and he would have about 15 more RBI.

AL Designated Hitter
1. Edgar Martinez- .319/.416/.595, 47RBI
2. Carl Everett- .301/.386/.602, 45RBI
3. Frank Thomas- .283/.420/.526, 30RBI
We must give this to Martinez and Thomas: they are now smarter than any pitcher. I gave Everett the nod in the two-hole simply because Big Frank doesn't have teammates that he can knock in, probably not the best philosophy. Edgar is having his career year, and nearing in at 40 at the same time.

AL Outfield (6 players)
1. Manny Ramirez- RF- .323/.410/.569, 48RBI
2. Garrett Anderson- LF- .305/.330/.559, 57RBI
3. Vernon Wells- CF- .292/.336/.542, 60RBI
4. Juan Gonzalez- .284/.315/.560, 47RBI
5. Milton Bradley- .329/.440/.503, 22RBI
6. Frank Catalanotto- .332/.372/.538, 38RBI
Very low on-base percenteges across the board. But, they are all superb players well-deserving of berths. No real traumatic choices here, I think Gonzalez is clarly the fourth best outfielder in the league. Rocco Baldelli and Ichiro are cursing me for the inclusion fo Catalanotto, but the RBI and Slg.% can't lie. Sorry Rocco.

NATIONAL LEAGUE Catcher
1. Javy Lopez- .305/.337/.713, 35RBI
2. Mike Lieberthal- .323/.397/.455, 25RBI
3. Paul Lo Duca- .330/.384/.463, 21RBI
What the hell is going on with Lopez? He is a different player, and one that is making himself a lot of money for this upcoming offseason. With Mike Piazza hurt, he deserves the bid here. Lieberthal and Lo Duca are close, and nearly interchangeable. But I really respect Liebs for coming back from that gruesome ankle injury.

NL First Base
1. Todd Helton- .319/.424/.549, 54RBI
2. Richie Sexson- .263/.365/.533, 45RBI
3. Jim Thome- .250/.371/.500, 48RBI
Helton is the easy choice, but leaving Bagwell off the top three was a tough choice. Sexson has so many home runs I had to include him, and Thome deserves some respect. It isn't easy to change leagues, and despite a low batting average he is performing excellently. I expect one huge second-half from Mr. Thome.

NL Second Base
1. Jose Vidro- .335/.426/.505, 32RBI
2. Jeff Kent- .315/.381/.534, 46RBI
3. Marcus Giles- .322/.400/.540, 34RBI
Giles doesn't have enough time under his belt to go to the All-Star game. Its a battle between Kent and Vidro, but Vidro's average made me go with him. I think if you switch teams, those RBI numbers would be a lot closer. I like Jeff Kent a lot, but he is a bench player All-Star.

NL Shortstop
1. Edgar Renteria- .333/.383/.496, 45RBI
2. Orlando Cabrera- .303/.369/.481, 35RBI
3. Alex Gonzalez- .332/.378/.607, 41RBI
Congratulations to Edgar Renteria, your the third best shortstop in baseball. He has put a great bat on the list of other attributes, which start with amazing glove and clutch play. Cabrera got the second slot from Gonzalez because of defense, attitude, and consistency.

NL Third Base
1. Scott Rolen- .304/.410/.559, 51RBI
2. Mike Lowell- .301/.355/.594, 51RBI
3. Chris Stynes- .281/.374/.449, 33RBI
By far my hardest decision. I was going to go with Lowell to continue my anti-OBP obsession, but went with Rolen instead. He plays gold glove defense, and fans absolutely love him. I would definitly stick Lowell in the DH slot though, and let him play third base about half-way through.

NL Outfield
1. Albert Pujols- LF- .389/.447/.727, 53RBI
2. Barry Bonds- N/A- .311/.496/.665, 37RBI
3. Gary Sheffield- RF- .353/.436/.665, 53RBI
4. Jim Edmonds- CF- .303/.401/.636, 37RBI
5. Preston Wilson- .304/.366/.583, 57RBI
6. Corey Patterson- .328/.348/.593, 46RBI
Albert Pujols is the MVP of the National League, and one of the three best hitters in baseball. Its an amazing turn of events for him, and he deserves all the credit in the world. Bonds won't play if elected, but I will elect him nonetheless. Taking his spot in the starting lineup will be Jim Edmonds, making 4 Cardinals starters in the game. Sheffield is putting together an MVP-caliber season, and suprisingly has 10 steals already. Wilson and Patterson were the two I chose, but there is about 10 other debateable players. As you've seen, my last couple options go to those players whose past performance hurts them.

Final note: I definitly agree with Dusty Baker that players should wear their team's uniform in the game, not an American or National League jersey. It shows more pride if you wear your real jersey. Except for the D-Rays representative, he may be too embarassed.

Any response to that e-mail at bryball@hotmail.com. I'll be back tomarrow with a long notes column, so check back!

2003-06-11T00:22:00.000-05:00

Long-Winded Expos Report
Rather than a detailed report on all of Major League Baseball, I fealt like writing about the Expos:

The Commisioner's Office has ruined the Expos. Not long ago, I fealt Montreal was one of the best up and coming teams in the Majors. Javier Vazquez looked great, as did Tomo Ohka, and Vidro-Wilkerson-Guerrero was an outstanding threesome. Its all beginning to fade away, and that should continue for a long time. Vladimir Guerrero is a free agent at the end of the year, and there is no possiblity that this team can hold on to him. No way....

So, Omar Minaya has a choice. He can hope that Major League Baseball allows a buyer to step forward, who then would sign Guerrero for a long time, as he did with Bartolo Colon. But his return on Colon was horrible, and should be a lesson. Now I'm going to say something I never thought I would mutter in my lifetime: Vladimir Guerrero should be traded. Yes, its true, he should be dealt. The Yankees would be very interested, but its more important than ever to get Nick Johnson in the deal, something the team may be reluctant to do. But I do believe that Guerrero and teammate Joey Eischen could be dealt in return for Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Danny Borrell.

Is that everything the Expos should do? God no. Eliminating Guerrero and Eischen off the payroll is just one step. Although Tony Armas will be a great pitcher, they should get him healthy and trade him away. Livan Hernandez is doing better than ever, and I believe the Braves and Dodgers would be interested in his services. Finally, something must be done about Mike Barrett and Fernando Tatis. Their numbers:

Barrett: .139/.208/.278 .486OPS 8RBI!!!!
Tatis: .201/.287/.277, 8XBH, 15RBI

That's horrible. Now I don't think that Tatis has any value left, and he will be added to the free agent pool this offseason. But Minaya should see what the Diamondbacks are doing with Matt Williams, and do the same thing to Tatis. Barrett on the other hand, could be a part of a deal. I think that trading Tony Armas and Mike Barrett to the Rangers is a realistic possibility. Ryan Ludwick and Gerald Laird have slipped through the cracks, and getting a reliever like Rosman Garcia wouldn't be a bad idea.

OK, so that leaves Livan Hernandez. His brother, El Duque, is out for the season, and culminates Minaya's horrible job of the Colon situation. But Livan is a playoff pitcher, and would be great in Dodger stadium's spacious field. I also think the Braves would love to get their hands on him, as he is a proven innings-eater. He wouldn't attract much, but I like Victor Alvarez of the Dodgers, or Mike Hessman of the Braves.

The team this year is doing some interesting things. First, my 2002 breakout candidate, Brad Wilkerson, is breaking out. He looks like an amazing player, and will be able to take some of Guerrero's loss. Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera are doing better than expected, and look like a very solid middle infield combination. Claudio Vargas has pitched well in his trial in a Major League bullpen, and Rocky Biddle is a nice arm in the 'pen. The club did a good job issuing call-ups to Julio Manon and Anthony Ferrari, who could be the two best relievers on the team by the end of the season. Also, Zach Day was breaking out before his injury.

The farm system is also better than previously thought. Baseball Prospectus has started a Free Termel Sledge pledge, because of these numbers at AAA:

Sledge: .335/.443/.555 40BB/37K, 10HR, 6SB

And he doesn't get a call-up when Guerrero goes down? Well, he should. Also, Pete Bergeron is showing strike zone improvement in AAA, and is hitting .301. With the first base job uncertain, they should move Wilkerson there for awhile, as they sort through: Sledge, Bergeron, Chavez, Carroway, Cepicky, etc. Scott Downs has returned from the dead to post OK numbers at AAA, and may be in for a start or two by the end of the year. A player they got in the Giants deal, Edwards Guzman, was hitting .340 before a recent ML promotion, and he can play first, third, and catcher. Nice choice.

In AA, there are a few intriguing players. Josh McKinley, a former first-rounder, is hitting .309 with 30BB to 35K and nine home runs. Not bad. He is still probably a 2005 player, and shouldn't be counted on until then. But two pitchers, Seung Song and Josh Karp, are doing well at AA. Song is definitly in line for a promotion, and likely will be in the rotation in 2004. Karp will be there midseason, and isn't dominating Harrisburg like Song is.

In the bullpen, Rocky Biddle, Scott Stewart, Eischen, and Rule V pick Luis Ayala are having good seasons. Eischen is definitly a tradeable person, but the others should stay. Add Manon and Ferrari to the mix and you have a pretty good bullpen. I have soured on T.J. Tucker, but he could battle Sun-Woo Kim and Britt Reames for that final job.

OK, so that leaves 2004 options. The infield would be Johnson-Vidro-Cabrera-? unless one was traded for economical purposes. The outfield I would have would be Wilkerson-Ludwick-Sledge. The rotation would have Vazquez, Day, Ohka, Song, and Vargas or Borell. But if Ohka makes any money, ship him off and let another rook claim that last job. That leaves Juan Rivera off my list, but I would ship him to Arizona, in exchange for fellow prospect Chad Tracy. If Arizona isn't convinced, throwing in a Tucker-Kim-Reames player would be OK. Overall, that would leave the Expos with expensive players at second, short, and the number one rotation slot.

Omar Minaya is going to have this team again in 2004. By trading Guerrero he gives himself options, but also a chance to trade some people. If McKinley continues his success he could spell Vidro's end in mid-2004, giving the Expos more insurance. Can the Expos contend with all this uncertainty? Who knows, but it is Selig's fault.

2003-06-10T00:42:00.000-05:00

Amateur Draft, Farming Philosophies
Last week I gave my horrible top 15 projection, and here is the ugly truth:
1. Delmon Young (Young)
2. Richie Weeks (Weeks)
3. Kyle Sleeth (Stauffer)
4. Tim Stauffer (Sleeth)
5. Chris Lubanski (Lubanski)
6. Ryan Harvey (Harvey)
7. Nick Markaksis (Aubrey)
8. Paul Maholm (Allison)
9. John Danks (Maholm)
10. Ian Stewart (Milledge)
11. Michael Aubrey (Danks)
12. Lastings Milledge (Markaksis)
13. Aaron Hill (Hill)
14. Ryan Wagner (Sullivan)
15. Anderson (Stewart)

In the end, the Tigers made the right choice picking the more projectable Sleeth. I really disagree with the Orioles pick, as Aubrey, Milledge and Stewart are better hitters, and Maholm, Danks, and Allison are better pitchers. Those six better choices all were picked after the Orioles 7th pick.

The Royals reached a little with Lubanski, but he'll likely come cheaper than Harvey. The Cubs choice, Harvey, was great, and they improved organization depth with choosing nice catchers. Harvey could become Sosa's successor, and is likely to team with Felix Pie as the top outfield combos in baseball.

Harvey was one of three high schoolers who ended up falling. Harvey was a top-3 caliber choice, but dropped out of the top five. Lastings Milledge is an amazing athlete, and would have been a decent pick at fifth. Finally, Jeff Allison dropped to 16. I stand by my thought that Allison was the best pitcher in this draft, and will be a top prospect in baseball at one point. The lesson: be upfront about your bonus demands, don't let rumor make you fall. John Danks jumped up because he is a very 'safe' HS pick. As did Ian Stewart, who isn't half the player that Milledge is. Collegiate Paul Maholm skyrocketed, and Brad Sullivan took a huge drop. Ryan Anderson rose pretty high, but Michael Aubrey had a monster-sized fall.

I thought the Indians had a great draft getting Aubrey, then Snyder at 18. Mark Shapiro is an awesome GM, and is the reason that the Indians look to be a 2006 player. The Rangers had a good draft with Danks, then the expensive but talented Vince Sinisi. The Marlins choice of Allison so low makes their draft a very good success. I thought Tampa Bay had a good draft, as did the Diamondbacks.

Some draft notes:
- Its amazing that the Royals work so limited in funds. Kansas City needed pre-draft deals with Lubanski and Mitch Maier at no. 30, rather than take Harvey and Miguel Vega.

- The A's should be happy that they got Brad Sullivan, who is arguably better than Paul Maholm at number 8. Its not often that Oakland will take unsure picks, but they had a few first rounders, and had no problem with the gamble. As much as Billy Beane is complimented by society, he sure reaches on players a lot.

- I like Detroit's second-round pick, Jay Sborz. He is a high-school pick, which is risky, but if he signs than he could have Sleeth-like potential.

- The White Sox chose one of the most interesting players in the draft in their second round, outfielder Ryan Sweeney. He had a great summer league last year, but his school doesn't have a spring team. He has great power, and has a much higher ceiling than Ryan Anderson, their first-round pick. That's not to say I don't like last year's pick, Anthony Webster, more.

My All-Blocked Team
Some teams don't trust their young prospects, and others are blocked by superstar players. These are likely to be players found in deals, as their team doesn't want them, but someone will:

Catcher
Kevin Cash
The Blue Jays have gotten more out of their catchers than anyone in baseball, and have a great prospect in Guillermo Quiroz in Double-A. Cash has great defense, but isn't hitting this year in AAA. He has a .260 career average, and 40 HR in more than 1,000 at bats. There isn't much catching in the Majors, but Cash could be good. He doesn't understand the strike zone, which puts him on Riccardi's hit list.

First Base
Todd Sears
The Twins are giving Sears a chance this year, but its long overdue. Doug Mientkiewicz holds down the first base job, and the Twins have millions of options at DH. Justin Morneau is one of the best hitters in the minors, and will eliminate both Sears and Mientkiewicz. Todd has a .298 career average, and is closing in on 2500 minor league at bats. He doesn't have great power, but hitting .300 with twenty homeruns would be solid for some teams.

Second Base
Chris Burke
Because the Astros lacked a high-A affiliate last year, Burke's growth was slowed. In his second trip around double-A he is dominating, leading the Texas League in hits. Jeff Kent will not allow Burke to make the Majors, unless Burke plays Eckstein-like at shortstop. With Tommy Whiteman as a good prospect, don't expect that. But Burke, and another player on this list could yield quite the veteran.

Shortstop
Alex Cintron
While Aaron Gleeman has a Free Johan Santana, and the Free Erubiel Durazo was a long-time campaign, I was always promoting the Free Alex Cintron movement. Alex has a .292 career minor league average, and has more triples than home runs in that time span. He doesn't walk a ton, but can steal a base when on. He dominated the Pacific Coast League, ending up with a .322 average. He may be more of a utility player, but he's better than Omar Infante, Julio Lugo, and whomever the Padres are starting.

Third Base
Chad Tracy
And yet another Diamondback. Tracy has a .340 minor league average, but saw his chances die when the club traded for Hillenbrand. If they make another trade this year it will likely include Tracy, who is now on everyone's radar. It would be interesting to see if the New York Mets can see this opening, and trade for their future third basemen. With Steve Phillips still in charge, don't count on it.

Outfielders
Jason Lane, Jason Dubois, Juan Rivera
Lane has been the MVP of two leagues in the minors, but the Astros simply won't give him a chance. He's a more consistent player than Richard Hidalgo, and can play all three outfield positions. It would be very smart for a team to come up and get Lane and Burke, because they are both great players.
Dubois racked the Florida State League last year, but didn't make the Blue Jays as a Rule V pick. He is making mincemeat of AA pitching, and word is he will get the AAA promotion soon. With Sosa in place at right, and Kelton looking to be in left field, Dubois is out of a job. Adding Jason to the package with Cruz and Hill may get the Mike Lowell deal done.
Finally, Juan Rivera. The Yankees won't play him, but got him in the media so they can trade him at the deadline. Erick Almonte and Rivera may get a pretty good player at the deadline, but I'm not sure how good those two will come out.

That's all for today, back later tomarrow...

2003-06-09T00:45:00.000-05:00

Firesales
Yes, the trading deadline is still seven weeks away, but readers will see my obsessions grow as each week wears on. At about this point in the season, teams begin to realize in what direction they are heading in 2003. With that realization comes a choice: who goes?

J.P. Riccardi stepped into his first full offseason this last winter with a two-year plan, his goal to build Toronto into a 2004 contender. Many people thought Toronto would be good this season, and the Jays are living up to that projection. But, there will be some salaries leaving at the end of the season, and to ensure that two-year plan, Riccardi must develop more depth and pitching. The four players of decisions:

Shannon Stewart- LF- .300/.355/.441, 21BB/21K
Frank Catalanotto- UT- .329/.371/.528, 23 2B/46R
Cory Lidle- 8-4 4.80 1.25WHIP 6.6IP/GS
Kelvim Escobar- 3-3 4.60 49K/45IP swingman

Not bad options. The team could also deal Mike Bordick and Greg Myers for a little extra insurance. But, the Blue Jays are within two and a half games of the division. Would this be a White Sox White Flag similarity, or more reality from Riccardi? It would be the latter, as the Blue Jays are more apt to win a division with all the youngsters getting another year, some of their top prospects reaching the Majors, and using some of the money those players listed above will bring. I believe Toronto will be in the hunt in 2004, but I think they will be in the World Series hunt in 2005....

One of the biggest suprises for me this year has been the Baltimore Orioles. The O's have stayed around .500 the whole season, which is remarkable to me. After being the worst team in the Majors in last year's 2nd half, I projected them 5th in the AL East. But, they are playing like an AL team. I have said earlier that my parameters of this new GM tandem will be their organization on August 1. The team has Sidney Ponson in their rotation, whom is about to be a free agent. They have a great bullpen, and would be able to trade Buddy Groom, Kerry Ligtenberg, and Willis Roberts. Finally, Tony Batista is one of a couple tradeables on offense. Peter Angelos will see Albert Belle go off his payroll next season, along with Pat Hentgen, and he will be spending money. Finally, don't be suprised if Baltimore ends up swinging a Ponson-Juan Gonzalez deal. Both are free agents at the end of the year, but both teams could sell their city to that player for the following two months.

The AL Central has two firesale teams as well, the White Sox and Royals. It has gotten to the point where 2003 is in the books for the Central, as the Twins will be the only playoff team from here. Now, its time to think about 2004. First, the White Sox. I don't think Colon will be available, as he was too big a name, and Reinsdorf may want him back. If not, they get the draft pick. But, I could see them trading Tom Gordon, Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin, and Tony Graffanino. Admittedly that isn't a great sum, but its enough to stack for the following season. The team would also trade Paul Konerko, Frank Thomas, and Billy Koch in a pinch.

The Royals are an interesting team, as they hold the most important item...Carlos Beltran. I believe Carlos should be traded next offseason, after Mike Sweeney agrees to honor his contract. But, at the deadline Jason Grimsley, Brent Mayne, and Michael Tucker will be options. That isn't a great lot of players, and hardly a firesale, but it would be if Baird unleased Beltran early.

The West has the Texas Rangers, who may be able to leave the biggest imprint on the market. The team holds the biggest names for the deadline, like Gonzalez, Carl Everett, Rafeal Palmiero, and Ugueth Urbina. They would also trade Ismael Valdes if they could get value in return. John Hart must build the offense around A-Rod, using cheap players, with the bevvy of Hicks' money going to starting pitching. I've heard Urbina for Brandon Claussen rumors, they could net Sidney Ponson, and then be able to deal Everett and Palmiero for even more. The market in July will run in and out of Arlington...

A quick run down off NL teams:
Expos- Wow, Omar Minaya has a hard job. Guerrero is likely to leave at the end of the season, and they may have to rid themselves of Vazquez. I think its likely that Guerrero is traded, and I think that he would trade Tatis, Mike Barrett, Orlando Cabrera, Livan Hernandez and Joey Eischen if he could. But imagine how different the Majors would be if the Yankees got Vladimir Guerrero. Let's see: Mondesi, Rivera, Claussen, Borrell, Cano, and more...

Marlins- Mike Lowell will be dealt very soon, arguably this week. Luis Castillo will be the next victim after that. I also expect Brad Penny, Derrek Lee, Todd Hollandsworth, and possibly Pudge Rodriguez to be names. Miami is the second best spot for a contender to look.

Mets- Whatever they can. Jeremy Burnitz would be a nice bench player, Rey Sanchez as a glove man, Timo Perez as a 4th outfielder, and Armando Benitez in set-up. But, Robbie Alomar is their name. I've heard Boston and St. Louis, but I like my Minnesota idea.

Pirates- Kenny Lofton is one of the hotter names in baseball, but watch Littlefield milk the media for extra value. He is very smart in that area. The club will trade D'Amico, Suppan, Williams (maybe), and Sauerbeck. Jason Kendall and Brian Giles are questionable names, although the sum would be very hefty. Imagine what the Dodgers could give for Giles...

That's all for now. Tomarrow I'm going to do an extra-long minor league report, and maybe some site changes. Also, some exciting news may be on the way...

2003-06-05T22:49:00.000-05:00

- Response to bryball@hotmail.com
New Notes
Next week I will be adding a lot to the notes post, having three sections: statistics, observations, and rumors. I have mostly displayed statistics in the past, so I thought that I would go with observations this week. My watching baseball this week:

- The Braves sent Horacio Ramirez to the mound on Sunday Night Baseball. He was unimpressive, but has been a pretty good starter this year for Atlanta. I shocked many people picking Ramirez as my NL Rookie of the Year, thinking Mazzone could work him well. I'm proud to say that while Ramirez wouldn't win today, he's hardly a laughable candidate. On a good Atlanta team, there is still a possibility of 12-15 wins. He had been having good outings before then, and is a keep-the-ball-down pitcher. If he keeps it low, then he will be a winner.

- In that Braves-Mets series, another gem was found...Jae Seo. In an unimpressive Mets rotation, Seo has shined, and keeps himself in New York's future plans. He does give up a lot of hits, but at the same time doesn't walk people and induces fly balls. Shea Stadium is a good park for flyball pitchers, and I think he'll succeed there. Granted, the number of hits is scary, but Seo hasn't been rocked in an outing yet.

- To keep a run on pitching, I really like Todd Wellemeyer. Todd is getting glowing reports in Chicago, because in his seven and two-thirds innings he has struck out 13, walked NONE, and allowed TWO hits. Wow. He has a mid-90s fastball, good curve, and a decent changeup, all thrown for strikes. Larry Rothschild thinks he could be a top-of-the-rotation guy, as well as a closer. He goes after hitters well, so I would like to see him get some save opportunities in the future. He allows the club to deal Juan Cruz, probably the best thing you can say about him.

- The next pitcher, an ex-Cub, looks great. I was critical on the Marlins for hurrying Dontrelle Willis, but he doesn't look intimidated. I read in the Sporting News a scout talk great about him, mentioning his confidence and intensity. His last three outings have totaled 22 innings, with a grand total of one run. ONE. This is facing Cincinnati twice, and Oakland once. That's pretty damn good. He looks ready, not only Major League ready, but ready to be a Rookie of the Year and an ace.

- One hitter I have really enjoyed seeing this year is Milton Bradley. Its amazing how good he looks this year, willing to take a pitch and then mash when he needs to. He looks to be the type of player this team needs, and is a much better option than Matt Lawton. I hope Cleveland doesn't get stupid and deal him, like Montreal once did...
But I must say, that trade also worked out well for the Expos. Although Zach Day is hurt right now, he's having one amazing season, and I have heard more than one Kevin Brown comparison. Not bad company...

- We all know Jeff Kent is a good hitter. But trust me when I say he is better than his numbers indicate. I have seen him tattoo balls this week, but they always seem to go just foul or right at a defender. Look for him to get red-hot, and probably post MVP-caliber numbers. I always thought highly of him, but now I see him as the best offensive second basemen in the last thirty years.

- Finally, I mentioned it once already, but Franklyn German is a changed man. He has taken velocity off the fastball, but with his movement it doesn't matter. Getting it over the plate at 95 is much better than high and outside at 98. He is learning this, and still promises to be one of the better closers in baseball soon. Very soon. Now if they could just turn around Pena...

Please check back Sunday night or Monday for my weekend column, and have a great weekend.

2003-06-05T01:51:00.000-05:00

- Comments and Concerns to bryball@hotmail.com
Before I start today, I'd like to publicize my thank yous. I started this blog about four weeks ago, and for exposure/advice purposes started e-mailing the blog geniuses of the world, getting good response. These four people have helped me so much:
- Aaron Gleeman
- Matthew Durham
- Christian Ruzich
- Alex Belth
Remodeling the Marlins
OK, I'll lay off the Sammy Sosa rants for awhile (what? 0 for 76, that's what I thought...sorry again), and go back on schedule. But in yesterday's rant, I mentioned that the Cubs should execute the talked about Mike Lowell trade right away. That got me thinking, what about those Marlins...

Before the season, I picked the Marlins as one of my suprise teams. Had I known that Burnett would be gone until 2005 and Mark Redman and Josh Beckett would miss time than I wouldn't have chosen that. But I saw something unique in this team, something no other team was trying...speed. I loved the fact that Florida was trying to run into the playoffs, and I'm still infatuated with the idea today.

Without Burnett, there is still a lot of pitching on this team. Dontrelle Willis is impressive, and actually looks like he should stay in the rotation. Beckett will return from injury within the next week or so, and he is still on his way to stardom. Brad Penny is pitching like he is supposed to, and pain-free. Mark Redman looks like a very good fit here as well. That is four pitchers, with both Justin Wayne and Carl Pavano as possibilities. But, hold on that thought...

Injuries to the bullpen has allowed the team to see what some arms look like. For example, Tommy Phelps looks like a solid leftie from the 'pen, while Blaine Neal needs more time. Allen Levrault looks to be a decent middle reliever, but Juan Alvarez isn't. The two that teams are scouting are Braden Looper and Armando Almanza. Looper is having a very good year in the closer spot, but Tim Spooneybarger will assume that role soon. Almanaza is struggling this year, but is a good pitcher with a very small contract.

The offense is interesting. Pudge has been a small disappointment behind the plate, as he has failed to draw the attendance that some thought. Mike Lowell has been amazing, but that means they need to trade him even more. Luis Castillo is a free agent at year's end, and he likely will be gone. Derrek Lee is being pushed by two prospects, and he makes a lot of money. And finally, even Andy Fox has drawn attention on the trading market.

Here's what the trading for the Marlins should be like this year:
- Mike Lowell to Chicago for Juan Cruz and Bobby Hill
- Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Bubba Crosby and Steve Colyer
- Derrek Lee to Montreal for Fernando Tatis, Pete Bergeron and Julio Manon
- Braden Looper to St. Louis for Jim Journell
- Armando Almanza to Houston for Raul Chavez
- Andy Fox to Yankees for Randy Choate

The Lowell trade gives the Marlins another ace, and Luis Castillo's replacement. The LA trade gives the team a possible left fielder and a good LOOGY. The Lee trade would give them Bergeron, learning baseball at AAA, and Manon, a very good reliever. Jim Journell would be a project with big upside, Raul Chavez could be a backup catcher now, and Choate would give Colyer and Phelps a run for their money.

Then, next offseason...
- Trade Brad Penny to the Reds for Brandon Larson
- Sign Jose Guillen

Larson will be able to play 3B, 1B, and LF, so he's versatile with a ton of upside. Penny was someone with no place to go. Then, they might as well try Guillen, because if he performs like he has with the Reds than it takes a lot of pressure off their youngsters. OK, to the team...

Lineup
CF- Juan Pierre
2B- Bobby Hill
RF- Juan Encarnacion
LF- Jose Guillen
3B- Miguel Cabrera
SS- Alex Gonzalez
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
C- Ramon Castro
Bench
- Raul Chavez
- Bubba Crosby
- Pete Bergeron
- Kevin Hooper
- Brandon Larson

Rotation
1. Josh Beckett
2. Mark Redman
3. Juan Cruz
4. Dontrelle Willis
5. Justin Wayne
Bullpen
CL- Spooneybarger
SU- Blaine Neal
SU- Julio Manon
LH- Steve Colyer
LH- Phelps/Choate
MR- Carl Pavano
MR- Allen Levrault

This team wouldn't win that year, but they would be up and coming, with lots of youthful players who could be stars. The team will have money to spend, but should do that toward extensions, not FA. They need to lock up those assets they have, not need another firesale like this year looks like.

Back tomarrow with my notes column, non-stats version...
- B

2003-06-03T23:13:00.000-05:00

- Responses to bryball@hotmail.com
No questions here for Sammy...Jeter a captain?

Normally on Tuesdays I write a standings report, and was preparing my one-third report, with WGN behind me. That's when I heard it...Sammy Sosa ejected for using a corked bat. So, my report will have to wait until Saturday or something, as I needed to write my thoughts on this issue...

George Brett, Albert Belle, Chris Sabo, etc. All these players were caught for using illegal substances on their bats. George Brett became infamous for his reaction to pine tar, while Belle and Sabo claimed the bat wasn't theirs. That is not what Sammy Sosa did today. Sosa was a man today, coming out, owning up to the fact that he cheated in a game. When he did that, all other things he says should be validated by the media, fans, and the rest of the American public.

Imagine what its like to be THE hero of a nation. Put yourself in Sammy Sosa's shoes: your going into your native homeland, where every young child wants to grow up to be just like you. You're scheduled to put on an exhibition, a home run contest, for these loyal fans whom would take a bullet for you. Not only would you WANT to impress them, you would like ENSURE it. That is what Sosa does, he simply gives the fans, during exhibitions, what they want. That is the reason he is an idol, not the reason him image should be tarnished...

Sosa will be suspended. He knows that, and everyone associated with the game knows that. He broke the rules, and is willing to except his punishment. But baseball isn't the issue anymore, its about pride, its about keeping those millions of fans that flocked to him during the McGwire home run chase. I hope every media source, especially the most criticizing, ESPN, goes to McGwire and asks him opinion, because I guarantee he will back up his friend.

This doesn't help the Sosa image that was already shrinking due to steroids. Then, Sosa came out and said he would be the first in line to be tested. He challenged everyone, making them eat their words. That is what he is doing today..challenging his doubters. Look at every other Sosa bat, check Sosa's strength, his bat speed with a normal bat, and it will prove he doesn't need cork. He'll take the punishment, but not one out of five-hundred and five homers should be doubted.

ESPN's Sportscenter just did a piece on Sosa, asking all the questions, in a distasteful manner, that some of you detractors will undoubtedly do. But look at the experts, Reynolds, Valentine, and Gammons who were so quick to say that Sosa should be taken at face value. Reynolds called up Sosa's ex-manager Don Baylor, who couldn't even believe the story. SAMMY SOSA MADE A MISTAKE, HE ISN'T A CHEATER!

Look for two baseball subplots to spin off this: the marketing for baseball and the next ten games for the Cubs. Sosa does more commercials than any other player. Major League Baseball wants his name, face, and stats associated with their pastime. It will be interesting to watch if Pepsi pulls the plug, if all those companies drop Sosa. I truly hope not, because Sosa is an ambassador for the game, and a wonderful baseball player. Someone had to see something special to trade for him twice, and there has to be something special about a player who has his first home run off Roger Clemens.

Secondly, what will this do for the Cubs? Chicago recently had to endure a long road trip while Sosa, their best player, sat at home nursing his toe. The Cubs remained atop the standings, but started to fade towards the end. If Sosa is gone for another ten games, they need a bat in that lineup. Juan Cruz was sent to AAA-Iowa today, where he will become teammates with Bobby Hill. Tomarrow, Jim Hendry should send the two of them to Florida, in exchange for Mike Lowell. He could step in and fill the cleanup spot for a team that needs it badly, and easily be pushed back to the five or six hole in the middle of June. But Hendry must do it sooner rather than later. They must reap the benefits of an easy interleague schedule, and they won't without Sammy.

In conclusion, I plead everyone reading this to believe Sammy. Look at his home runs, and tell me that he's cheating. This is a special player, and has been since the Rangers signed him from the Dominican Republic. He didn't want to cheat, he has too much pride for that. An honest mistake it just that...a mistake. So please, don't question any homers, embrace him even more, God knows he'll need it...

On another note, Derek Jeter was named a captain today. He is only the 11th captain in team history, so the recognition is pretty honorable. I must ask Steinbrenner...why?

Sure, Jeter has a good-looking face, and a style that many players wish they had. Yes, he is an above-average shortstop offensively. But, he hurts the team with his glove, and is a bad shortstop. Bad. Not only that, but the Yankees are 7-11 this year when Jeter is playing. They have played worse with him in the lineup. This is hardly his fault, but its a stat that can't lie.

Maybe its just a publicity stunt, a way for Steinbrenner to add vigor to the team, and strengthen his relationship with the club's shortstop. But, Jeter is not the Yankees best player, he may be their best spoken.

Back tomarrow, sorry for the ranting...

2003-06-03T00:48:00.000-05:00

- Response to bryball@hotmail.com
Minor League Report- The Amateur Draft
We're on the eve of the MLB draft, so I thought that I would spend this week's MLR to preview the draft, and the following week to review what happened. I am no draft expert, but am trying to become one with constant help from places like Baseball America and ESPN.

Once again, the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays have the first choice. Unlike previous drafts, no clear number one has jumped out before draft day. The Devil Rays have considered many options, but narrowed it down to Delmon Young and Richie Weeks. Young put a great display in Tropicana Field, showcasing his power, while Weeks has proven himself during his whole season at Southern University. Its a tough choice, but it seems like the D-Rays will go with Young. The club hopes for an outfield of Crawford, Baldelli, and Young one day, with Wes Bankston or the forgotten Josh Hamilton in the DH slot.

Secondly, Bud Selig's Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee's first round choice has been dictated by Tampa Bay, although Adam Loewen was their choice before Baltimore snatched him. So, Weeks will go to Milwaukee, where the team hopes to have a middle infield of J.J. Hardy and Weeks in the coming years. This pick is better for them than Young, considering the team has Brad Nelson, Corey Hart, Richie Sexson, and Prince Fielder to worry about in the corner slots.

Third and fourth are the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres. Both will go with college pitchers that will help their franchises quickly, and like the Brewers, the Padres pick is chosen by the Tigers. The general consensus is Tim Stauffer of Richmond will help before Kyle Sleeth of Wake Forest, so the Tigers will go with Stauffer. Sleeth will then be chosen by the Padres at number four, their most expensive draft pick in recent memory.

Fifth and sixth expect hitters. The Royals have made no secret that they either plan to draft Chris Lubanski or Ryan Harvey. Over the last few weeks Lubanski jumped out as the more logical, and economical, choice for the club. The Cubs pick 6th, where they are deciding between Harvey and Tulane OF Michael Aubrey. Expect the club to go with Harvey, who was once mentioned as a possible number one choice. Seventh is the Orioles, the least clear cut of the ten...

The seventh choice will be either Michael Aubrey or Jeff Allison, the first high-school pitcher. Before writing Allison off, consider his high school statistics this past season:
Allison: 51IP 7H/9BB 118K, 0R
Yes, around 20K/9, and an ERA of 0.00. Wow. But after signing the high-profile Loewen weeks ago, I expect the club to pick Aubrey, who will be much cheaper. That means the Pirates will undoubtedly scoop Allison off the draft board eighth, giving them the best minor league pitching depth of any team...passing the Cubs.

Ninth is the famous Grady Fuson and the Texas Rangers. The choice will be between two lefties and an outfielder, either Paul Maholm, John Danks, or Lastings Milledge. Maholm is close to the majors, Danks has great potential, and Milledge is the athlete of the draft. But with the club in dire need of pitching, fast, expect the choice to be Maholm. Tenth, the Rockies will draft a hitter. They hope that Aubrey isn't chosen by Baltimore and falls, but will settle with Milledge. Also look for third base power hitter Ian Stewart to factor in here.

Eleven, is the Cleveland Indians. The team will have to choose between Stewart and Danks, but I think that Danks will get the nod here. That will really hurt the Mets, who I don't expect to then scoop up the third basemen, having too much confidence in David Wright. Instead, they'll look at Houston right-hander Brad Sullivan or community college two-way player Nick Markaksis. Expect the expensive player, Markaksis, to be the Mets choice. That leaves J.P. Riccardi, and the Moneyball philosphy in at the thirteenth pick. He will have to choose between three players: Stewart, Sullivan, and shortstop Aaron Hill. Stewart has the best potential, Sullivan is the pitcher the organization needs, but Hill is the man Riccardi falls in love with.

Since the Reds missed out on draft-and-follow Markaksis, look for them to go with Sullivan, who may cost a little, but is a good pick. The White Sox pick in the 15-hole, and have been indicating outfield all the way. But despite all those reports, look for the team to go with Ian Stewart, my biggest fall-guy on my mock draft this year.

Three more notes:
- Rice 1B Vince Sinisi should go to the Yankees
- Mitch Maier is a player to watch, a huge riser
- Watch the draft stock of P Marc Cornell fall dramatically

Recapping the Top 15:
1. Devil Rays- Delmon Young- Will be somewhere between Manny Ramirez and Dmitri Young
2. Brewers- Richie Weeks- Could be heart and soul of Milwaukee by 2005
3. Tigers- Tim Stauffer- Will be up as fast as they can get him there...check Bonderman
4. Padres- Kyle Sleeth- San Diego will be careful with high-profile choice
5. Royals- Chris Lubanski- First big reach of draft, should've gone with Harvey
6. Cubs- Ryan Harvey- Great pick...will end up being Sosa's successor
7. Orioles- Michael Aubrey- Cheap...more Sean Casey than Todd Helton to me
8. Pirates- Jeff Allison- Will be #1 prospect in BA rankings one day
9. Rangers- Paul Maholm- Little reach for someone who can help quick
10. Rockies- Lastings Milledge- His fall could mean he goes to college.
11. Indians- John Danks- I like this guy a lot, Phillips doing great job as GM
12. Mets- Nick Markakis- I'm not a big fan of two-way players...
13. Blue Jays- Aaron Hill- Russ Adams and Aaron Hill first Riccardi draftees
14. Reds- Brad Sullivan- My first to get injured pick of the year
15. White Sox- Ian Stewart- Assuming he signs, great choice

Jayson Stark writes on ESPN how the draft should be televised, something I agree 100% with. College baseball and the draft both have room to grow, but I think that college baseball should have wooden bats. People are turned off by college ball because of the huge difference they see between that and the Majors. Imagine how marketable Mark Prior could have been if this was a big event. We're talking Michael Vick exposure....

Back tomarrow with the one-third Standing Shots report, and a quick Draft review....

2003-06-02T00:15:00.000-05:00

- E-mail me at bryball@hotmail.com!
Sunday Column- Goodbyes

Whether you knew it or not, baseball said goodbye to impact players this week. Both players had started this season with the New York Mets, meeting in Port St. Lucie despite different pasts. One, an ex-Cy Young, was attempting a comeback after a year in the broadcast booth. The other, an ex-MVP, was attempting a different comeback, one from a disappointing season in baseball's largest media outlet. David Cone said goodbye in Port St. Lucie, the spot where he made the team, while rehabbing for the club's high-A team. Mo Vaughn has been injured, but it appears that the damage to his left knee will never heal, and he must hang up the spikes.

A look at Cone's career numbers (from Baseball-Reference):
450G (419GS) 194-126 3.46ERA 2504H/2898.2IP 2668K/1137BB
But what Cone fans will remember is the night everything clicked, July 18, 1999. In an interleague clash against the Montreal Expos, David Cone retired all 27 batters he faced, recording baseball's 14th perfect game. Cone will also be famous for 1994, the year that he won the Cy Young. His numbers with the Royals that year, and from his 2nd best season, 1988 with the Mets:
1994 (KC): 16-5 2.94 130/171.7 132/54 (2.94 to league Ave. of 5.00)
1988 (NYM): 20-3 2.22 178/231.3 213/80 (2.22 to ave. of 3.21)
Cone's return this season was likely to get the seven wins necessary for 200, but he only got one, finishing six short of the 101-member 200 club. Look for Cone to be back with the Yes Network before the year is over...

Mo Vaughn was the Fenway Park hitter. He was a stocky left-hander with an uppercut swing, who would love to take a pitch down the short right field line in Boston. He did it very well, and earned an insanely-high contract because of it, one that will pay him through 2005. He was a 1B stuck in a DH body, who won the AL MVP in 1995, and then had an even better 1996, but didn't repeat with the MVP. Here's a look at those two seasons:
1995: .300/.388/.575 39HR 126RBI 98R 11SB
1996: .326/.420/.583 44HR 143RBI 118R 2SB
And that over his entire career:
Career (11 seasons): .294/.384/.526 325HR 1049RBI
Vaughn had a decent chance of making the 400 HR club before he got injured, and will always be remembered as more of a power hitter than he was. New York had high hopes for him, as did Anaheim, but he never came through. Finally,
Interesting Mo fact: In 2000 Vaughn played one-third of an inning in CENTERFIELD!!!

I haven't covered it, but I should also mention goodbyes to three coaches that have been fired in the last month: Gary Ward, the White Sox hitting coach, Thad Bosley, Oakland's hitting coach, and Greg Booker, pitching coach for San Diego.

Ward's firing could be ruled as the most unjustly of the three, as the White Sox disappointments are hardly his problems. One should look at the successes of D'Angelo Jimenez more than Frank Thomas' struggles. But in the end, I guess it was the fact that Paul Konerko, Carlos Lee, and Joe Crede haven't developed into the superstars that the media projected. Next on the Chicago strike list: Jerry Manuel.

Bosley makes more sense, as Mark Ellis and Erubiel Durazo, two key players for 2003 hadn't performed the first two months of the season. That, Tejada's decline, and the non-successes of Adam Piatt and Terrence Long were likely the failures Billy Beane and Ken Macha pointed out. Bosley would make a good point looking at Eric Chavez, the pre-2003 Miguel Tejada, and the 2003 version of Eric Byrnes.

Lastly, Greg Booker. No, it isn't his fault that Phil Nevin, Trever Hoffman, and Mark Kotsay are hurt. But fingers can be pointed at him that the Padres used more pitchers last season than any team ever, that Oliver Perez is in AAA rather than the one spot of the rotation, and that Dennis Tankersly has been a failure. This is a team that had more pitching prospects than anyone two years ago, and now Kevin Towers is left to sort through the rubble. Booker will add on his resume Brian Lawrence, and maybe Kevin Jarvis...for that one season.

That's this weeks goodbyes, and I'd like to add a quick point about Questec. No, Curt Schilling was not right to go Jackie Chan on the machine, and deserves being fined the amount the machine costs. But, the idea is stupid, and the trial version shouldn't be in 13 Major League Stadiums in the regular season, but in all the stadiums during Spring Training. When one umpire admitted he changes in Questec stadiums, the whole idea should have been abolished. Since Abner Doubleday, part of this game has been subjective. Its good for broadcasters and fans to criticize an ump, but not for a machine to correct him. If they do this, then soon umpires will be non-existent, and robots will be wearing the blue uniforms.

Back tomarrow with the Minor League Report...

2003-05-29T17:50:00.000-05:00

- Questions, comments, suggestions to bryball@hotmail.com
Worthy Notes
- It looks like the Byung-Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand deal is all but completed, so Boston fans should be on cloud 9. This is a defnite win for the Red Sox. While Pedro sits on the DL, Kim will take his spot in the rotation. When Martinez returns the Red Sox will have three options: first to lose Burkett, secondly to move Wakefield to the 'pen, or lastly to make Kim their closer. I look for the team to do the third option, which will be interesting to see Kim try to close out games at Yankee Stadium more often. Here's the career lines for Kim:

243G, 8 GS: 21-22 70Sv 228H/323IP 380K/151BB

Not bad. He'll replace Bruce Chen long-term, which definitly is more of an improvement that Bill Mueller for Hillenbrand is a decrease. But in Arizona, offense is needed badly. This must mean the team isn't high on prospect Chad Tracy, who could be posed as trade bait later in the year. The career numbers of Hillenbrand, with one curious twist:

344G .284/.317/.432 33HR 170RBI 166R
April: .340-9-56 43R (285AB) All else: .267-24-116 (1002AB)

In April, Hillenbrand is a God, but those other numbers are merely average. He should be good for about 15HR, 70RBI a season, but his batting average will be about .280. That kind of production could have been gotten from Chad Tracy. Bill Mueller will become the Red Sox third basemen, something they wanted since winter time. He currently has an OBP of .441, and the team is 13-5 when he scores a run. The team isn't worried about depth at the position, as Kevin Youklis or Kevin Millar could play there if needed.

- In another trade this week, Alex Sanchez was dealt to the Tigers. I mentioned this earlier on the site, just stating that scouts and players question his work ethic, and believe he could be a better player. I failed to include his statistics, which are what the Tigers were buying:

Since 2002= .287BA, 46/66 in SB attempts, 71R in 561 AB

His time has been shortened by injury, but that projects to about 1 full Major League season. The Tigers are not doing well, and could use men in scoring position for Bobby Higginson and Dmitri Young, which Sanchez should provide. Gene Kingsale and Andres Torres both failed their CF trials, and the team has moved on. Here is Nook Varner and Chad Petty's current stats:

Varner (AA)- .303/.353/.411 0SB 30RBI in 44G
Petty (A+)- 3-4 4.40 66H/57.1IP 36K/10BB in 10 starts

- One could make a decent argument that a good leadoff hitter is the most important thing in baseball. Thats what the Tigers were trying to get above, and a declining ability in the power age. Ray Durham is one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, and has played well on all three of his teams the last 2 seasons. But on each one, when Ray scores, the team does better. The same is true for Rafeal Furcal of the Braves. I will be doing more of a full-length report on this subject later, but its worth watching. Here are the records of the teams of Durham and Furcal since 2002:

Durham= 76-25 when he scores
Furcal= 93-21 with his runs

It could be inferred that one of the reasons for the Giants downturn of late was the fact that Durham had been on the DL. Also, the Braves hot streak could be attributed to their red hot leadoff hitter, Furcal.

- One of the most important statistics often overlooked is a hittter's ability to hit with runners in scoring position. Here are the five best hitters, with more than 40AB, when runners are in position:
1. Carlos Delgado- .480-4-36 in 50AB
2. Marlon Anderson- .465-1-30 in 43AB
3. Scott Hatteberg- .452-2-21 in 42AB
4. Scott Rolen- .422-5-35 in 45AB
5. Edgar Martinez- .417-4-30 in 48AB

- With the growing emphasis of OPS, on-base plus slugging percents, it will be interesting to watch if OPS against starts to become popular. This season eight pitchers have OPS againsts of .600 or below, and five have allowed slugging percenteges under .300. Here they are:
OPS against
1. Kevin Brown- .534
2. Tim Hudson- .543
3. Jason Schmidt- .554
4. Mike Mussina- .558
5. Pedro Martinez- .567
6. Esteban Loazia- .568
7. Brett Myers- .581
8. Mark Prior- .595
Slugging %
1. Tim Hudson- .276
2. Kevin Brown- .280
3. Esteban Loaiza- .291
4. Brett Myers- .294
5. Kazuhisa Ishii- .296

- Pitch counts are growing in importance by day, so pitch efficiency will start being an art form taught by pitching coaches. Nine starters average less than 14.3 pitches per inning, and they are:
1. Mark Mulder
2. David Wells
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Matt Morris
5. Greg Maddux
6. Miguel Batista
7. Carl Pavano
8. Cory Lidle
9. Pedro Martinez

- And for the injury prediction of the week....Jake Peavy. Of highest pitches thrown, Peavy is the second highest of young pitchers who haven't gone under the knife, behind Mark Prior. Prior's mechanics are flawless and he has a massive body. But Peavy isn't like Prior in that sense, and could be a worry. Just what the Padres need...another injury.

- Back on Sunday with my weekly column, until then, have a good weekend...

2003-05-28T17:40:00.000-05:00

E-mails to bryball@hotmail.com
Remodeling the Yankees
It almost seems silly to put remodeling and Yankees in the same sentence, as one would laugh at the notion of breaking apart one of the greatest dynasties of the century. But between old age, a lot of free agents, and an angry owner, Cashman may have no choice. It sure would be crazy if Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Tejada, and the other greats of America signed; but who knows how long before Cashman must slash payroll a little. So here goes...

Once again, The Boss isn't happy. The 'Evil Empire' of New York hasn't met expectations and find themselves behind their bitter enemies. This is hardly the fault of Joe Torre or Brian Cashman, just a few unexpected slumps and injuries. Derek Jeter was lost for awhile after a gruesome shoulder injury, and it wasn't long after his return when Bernie Williams replaced him on the DL. Nick Johnson is hurt for awhile, and Jason Giambi has a lot of injuries and some noticeable problems. Andy Pettite and Jeff Weaver haven't been their former selves, and Jose Contreras isn't what Cashman bought. Mariano Rivera was on the DL for a month, and Steve Karsay will be there fr the year. So many unfortunate happenings that it seems like Boston bad luck...

Quick, whats a glaring Yankees weakness? Not the offense that was baseball's best in April, nor the bullpen with Rivera back, and definitly not the once 16-0 rotation. Its the defense as Allen Barra pointed out at Alex Belth's Bronx Banter yesterday. Jeter is the most overrated defender in the game, and Alfonso Soriano hasn't learned second despite Willie Randolph's guidance. Robin Ventura is getting old, and Giambi is a designated hitter. In center, William's arm and weakening knees are beginning to show, and hurt the club. There must be changes made to combat this problem, since the World Series Yanks of years past were good defensive teams.

Steinbrenner's $170 million project will be in the race at the All-Star break, with their main holes being lack of bullpen arms. While one can hardly complain of Chris Hammond's work, he's no Mike Stanton, nor the player the Braves employed last year. The team could use another southpaw, not Sterling Hitchcock, to kill some lefties. They could also use a Mendoza-type swingman, not Jose Contreras, as he was so important in his time in New York. The final piece would possibly be another infielder with good defense, as Enrique Wilson is past the point of being an employable Major Leaguer. Here are two deadline deals for New York:
- Erick Almonte, Marcus Thames, and Randy Choate for Buddy Groom
- Sterling Hitchock and Danny Borrell for Kelvim Escobar and Mike Bordick

Almonte did OK while replacing Jeter, but definitly improved his stock. Thames did hit a homer in his first at-bat, against Randy Johnson, but then struggles, and Randy Choate is a decent leftie who will never get a chance here. Its a decent package, and maybe a little much for the expensive Groom. But believe me, Buddy is worth it. He is the best leftie in the American League, and only Myers and Stanton are better in the NL. Borrell would be the arm Toronto needs, and the reason Toronto makes that deal. Hitchcock would be in there for money purposes, as he serves no value in New York. Escobar has proved viable in all roles, and Bordick is flawless on defense, and acceptable with the stick.

Then, after the Yankees once again fail to make the Series, and it will happen that way, Steinbrenner will get mad. He will let Pettite, Wells, and the 300-win Clemens walk. He will waive goodbye to Robin Ventura and Raul Mondesi. The club will welcome Jon Lieber to its rotation, in hopes he returns to pre-injury form. It will be Cashman's job to fix the D, and here is how:
1. Move Soriano to the outfield, centerfield works best
2. Move Bernie to left, and Matsui to right field
3. Push Derek Jeter to second
4. Never let Jason Giambi play first again as a Yankee!
This will allow the club to use Jeter's range in the infield, but take away the damage his arm provides. Soriano will use his speed in the outfield, and Williams would be a great left fielder.

That would left exposed the left side of the infield, one rotation spot, and two right-handed bullpen roles for the offseason. First, get Orlando Cabrera and Joe Randa for that left side. Both hold their own at the plate, but are gold-glove caliber defenders. Then, use the majority of money to sign Bartolo Colon. He would fill that 2nd rotation spot nicely, and is the innings-eater that New Yorkers need. It would push Brandon Claussen back to AAA, but with that much time he would be ready for any injury. Then, re-sign Kelvim Escobar for long relief, and get Todd Worrell from San Francisco. Bench roles seem to be unimportant to Brian Cashman, but it should be noted that Bubba Trammell is under contract.

Finally, a few lineup changes could be made. Alfonso Soriano is now leadoff hitter, but it seems to me that Jeter is perfect for that role. And I like the move of having Nick Johnson bat second. A review of my 2004 Yankees:

Lineup
1. Derek Jeter- 2B
2. Nick Johnson- 1B
3. Alfonso Soriano- CF
4. Jason Giambi- DH
5. Bernie Williams- LF
6. Jorge Posada- C
7. Hideki Matsui- RF
8. Joe Randa- 3B
9. Orlando Cabrera- SS
Rotation
1. Mike Mussina
2. Bartolo Colon
3. Jon Lieber
4. Jeff Weaver
5. Jose Contreras
6 (AAA). Brandon Claussen
Bullpen
CL- Mariano Rivera
SU- Steve Karsay
SU- Todd Worrell
LH- Chris Hammond
LH- Buddy Groom
RH- Kelvim Escobar

Back tomarrow....

2003-05-27T22:10:00.000-05:00

E-mails to bryball@hotmail.com
Standing Shots- Different Shades of Blue
It wasn't long ago that the Giants and Yankees had the largest leads for any division in baseball. No longer. The Dodgers have made a huge run, winning their last ten games, and see themselves tied with the Giants. The Yankees have had struggles of their own, winning only 3 of their last ten games. Four of those losses are attributed to the Blue Jays, who came in and swept the Yankees in the Bronx. The Blue Jays have a six game streak going, and while its the Red Sox in first, Toronto is only three games out.

Handicapping the NL West
I was considering the NL West the other day when it hit me: what is special about the Giants? I mean, the lineup has Benito Santiago cleanup occasionally, the rotation has extreme youngsters in Moss, Ainsworth, and Foppert, and the bullpen has no dominating force at the end of games. Believe me, I wouldn't mind to start off a team with Bonds and Schmidt, but injuries are grabbing hold of this team. The team is over budget, and may have to trade yet another bullpen stronghold, Felix Rodriguez. They can't lose any more arms in this pen, I mean it has to keep up with...
The Dodgers. The LA pen is the best in the game. Eric Gagne has transformed himself into the second-best closer in the league (behind Smoltz), and the Pauls, Shuey and Quantrill, are great set-up arms. Mix-in up and coming flamethrower Guillermo Mota, born again southpaw Tom Martin, and an ex-ace, Andy Ashby, in long relief. And to go along with that bullpen is a damn good rotation. Kevin Brown looks like the ace we knew he was, and Darren Dreifort is proving his worth, even as an $11 million pitcher. Hideo Nomo and Odalis Perez are amazing 3-4 pitchers, and Kazuhisa Ishii is proving strikes aren't important in the fifth hole. If a pitcher goes down they will go with Ashby, but also have Wilson Alvarez tearing up the Pacific Coast League. The question for Dan Evans is how much will he give for another bat. He must find a left fielder or third basemen to go in this lineup. I would recommend left, where Brian Jordan could be replaced with a bigger bat. Wow, Brian Giles would be nice...
Prediction: The Dodgers win by five games, the Giants are an afterthought in the Wild Card race.

Handicapping the AL East
Bernie Williams is the best superstar not on everyday highlights. It has been amazing to see what the Yankees have done without Bernie, which actually stands at an 0-5 record. Williams is an important bat for that lineup, twice as true without Nick Johnson and with Giambi struggling. But, Bernie doesn't play center like he used to. His arm hurt the Yankees in the playoffs last year, and would be a great left fielder. Matsui could move to right with relative ease, leaving center open. But, another defensive problem is up the middle with Jeter and Soriano. Both need to be moved after this season, as their lapses of concentration hurt the team. Steve Karsay will be missed, Chris Hammond was a bad investment, and Contreras or Weaver needs to breakout for the Yankees to reach the postseason. If rotation depth is what this team had over the Red Sox, they must flex that muscle soon, because Boston is gaining ground quickly. And believe me, the Red Sox don't look back...
But the Blue Jays are looking forward. After living in third place in recent years, the Blue Jays are making a run in May, winning their last seven games. They have the best hitting in the league, and are working with their pitchers. Roy Halladay is riding a six-game win streak, Cory Lidle has a seven-game streak, and Mark Hendrickson has won his last three. Doug Davis looks like a magnificent waiver claim, and marketing Kelvim Escobar in the rotation is genius. Other Riccardi steals, Josh Towers for instance, should be in the rotation this year, along with stud Jason Arnold. The question is, when does Riccardi start dealing. Stewart could be dealt to Oakland at the break for Aaron Harang and maybe Eric Byrnes. Lidle could go to a half-dozen places, with more pitching for a return. The Yankees have some minor-league arms for Escobar. They could deal Catalanotto. There are a lot of pieces set for the future in Toronto, but a lot of options at the break for J.P. Riccardi. His return, in pitching, for these players is necessary for a 2004 run, the best chance for Toronto since Joe Carter vs. Mitch Williams.
Prediction: Yankees win the East, but the Red Sox easily salvage the Wild Card.
Transaction Review
A couple of suprises today...
- Alex Sanchez traded to Detroit for Nook Varner and Chad Petty- Interesting trade. Varner is a speedster who is hitting .303 in double-A, a similar player to Sanchez. Petty was the team's #10 prospect (by Baseball America), but hasn't done great in A-ball thus far. Sanchez is filled with talents, he can run like the wind for instance, but hasn't put them completely on the field yet. Both his baserunning and defense aren't as good as they should be, which often frustrates players and scouts alike. But, I like the trade for Detroit except for the fact that Gene Kingsale was one of their better performers.
- Esteban Yan to St. Louis for Rick Asadoorian- Texas' dump. Asadoorian is an ex-first rounder who sucks, but still has enough tools to get traded again. Yan also sucks, but the Cardinals have to do something with this bullpen. Dave Duncan has performed miracles before, and Yan has the talent to be a decent middle reliever. But God, I hope that St. Louis does more than get Yan and the Todd Van Poppell that is about to be on the market.
- Orioles sign Adam Loewen- Huge for the Oriole franchise. Loewen comes in and immedietly becomes their best starter, and is more polished than he was last June. His arm is very important to this franchise, as their is hope in Baltimore. I never thought I'd say that Baltimore has one of the top 10 prospects in baseball...damn.
Back tomarrow with a Yankee remodeling...

2003-05-27T12:37:00.000-05:00

Sorry everyone, missed out on Sunday and Monday with a little Memorial Day getaway. I'll get back in the swing of things today, with Standing Shots, specialized in the direction of LA, Toronto, and New York.
E-mail any suggestions, comments, at bryball@hotmail.com
But before today's column, here is a quick note from what I saw this weekend:
- Frank Thomas looks horrible. I saw the White Sox on Friday and Saturday, and he looks really bad. He was horribly late on a couple fastballs, and then had three one-handed pitiful swings at sliders in the dirt. He is not the same player of old, and pitchers are starting to learn his strategy: take a pitch until he is down a strike. Throw him first pitch strikes, and you will get Frank out.
- Roger Clemens was laboring pretty bad yesterday. Baseball Tonight did a very good job noting how well the Red Sox did by making him throw pitches. Clemens will go for 300, and get it, in Detroit on Sunday. And there is an outside shot that yours truly will be attending the Tigers lose to Clemens!!
- Franklyn German looks like a new pitcher. I saw him earlier in the season and he was as wild as anyone in the league. He would get down in counts, walk people, and give up runs. He has began to look like the pitcher Dambrowski dealt for in the last couple of days. Trammell seems to have made him the closer again, and he has been used five times in the last eight days. In those 5.1 innings, he has allowed 2 hits, issued 2 walks, and struck out 4. He seems to have taken about 2 MPH off that fastball, but seems much smarter.
- Finally, while the Cubs have hit the cover off the ball this season, they are not doing it with Kerry Wood on the mound. Wood lost on Sunday, despite giving up 1 hit (and 1 run) in seven great innings. It marks the fifth time Wood has allowed 0 or 1 runs in a start this season, but his record is only 2-1 in those contests.
- I'll be posting more later....

2003-05-23T00:21:00.000-05:00

Pretty short notes column today, but I'll have a big notes segment probably before the Sunday Column. E-mails at ballnews722@hotmail.com:
NOTES OF NOTE
The relievers yet to allow a run in the 2003 season, minimum of 4 innings:
-Brendan Donnelly- 23.2 innings, 12 hits, 23K
-Kelly Wunsch- 12.2 innings, 2 hits, 12K
-Mike Fetters (DL)- 6IP, 2 hits, 1K
-Mike Crudale- 5.2 innings, 6 hits, 3 K
-Steve Avery- 5 innings, 2 hits, 2 K
-Todd Wellemeyer- 4.2 innings, 1 hit, 6K
-Kevin Ohme- 4.1 innings, 3 hits, 2K
In a twenty inning game, these are the pitchers you would want to be able to pinch hit with. In a minimum of 16AB, the five best averages for a pitcher so far:
1. Mark Prior- .346-1-5, 4R in 26AB
2. Aaron Cook- .313-0-3, 3R in 16AB
3. Jason Jennings- .313-0-1, 2R in 16AB
4. Kip Wells- .300-1-2, 3R in 20AB
5. Woody Williams- .286-0-0, 6R in 21AB
- Brooks Kieschnik has three hits in seven tries, including one HR.
To numbers of who would have the best OF in the NL. Combine Kearns, Dunn, Guillen and Griffey for the Reds, while taking Jones, Jones, and Sheffield's numbers in Atlanta:
Reds- .286-39-124, 87R, 21 2B, 3SB in 462AB
Braves- .307-28-108, 94R, 39 2B, 10SB in 495AB
Name the team with the hardest All-Star pick. Not the D-Rays (Baldelli), Brewers (Sexson), or even Tigers (Cornejo). Its definitly the Padres, who offer this towards Dusty Baker:
* Xavier Nady- OF- .300-7-21, 26R in 170AB, not OF All-Star numbers
* Jake Peavy- SP- 4-4 4.35ERA, 57H/60IP, 56K/28BB, not great starter
* Matt Herges- RP- 14H/23.2IP 23K/16BB, 1.90ERA, not great reliever
* Jesse Orosco- RP- My vote...when in doubt go with sympathy.
* Tony Gwynn?
Sunday's column will be on the influence of superstars on a team, or lack there of. The preliminary stats that show that a superstar could have a negative effect. Records with and without their best players:
KC with Beltran: 13-14, without: 12-3
NY with Jeter: 4-6, without: 23-9
CIN with Griffey: 6-7m without: 18-15
Also note that the Cubs are 6-4 without Sosa

2003-05-22T00:48:00.000-05:00

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Remodeling the Dodgers
Jim Tracy is a miracle worker. The last two seasons the Dodgers have eclipsed the 90-win barrier with teams that some managers couldn't reach .500 with. Last season he lost Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort to injury, and had one of the worst offenses in the league. In 2001, he decided on a journeymen catcher Paul Lo Duca to start at that position, and in 2002 decided on a long-time minor leaguer named Dave Roberts to patrol center. Lo Duca looks to be a great asset, and solid hitter for the lineup. Roberts looks to be another Kenny Lofton or Vince Coleman, speed demons with good defense. Finally, where would the Dodgers be if one-time starter Eric Gagne hadn't been Tracy's choice at closer?
One thing Tracy has yet to do is turn on Adrian Beltre. Since an emergency appendectomy, Beltre has yet to revert back to the form that made him the next up and coming MLB superstar. Granted, 81 games in Dodger Stadium will hurt a man's power numbers, but Beltre is batting .190 this season. First base has been a hole for the team, barely reaching league average in any categories. Dan Evans has chosen the old-time philosophy defense over offense in the middle infield, a choice that cost him dearly. Despite Shawn Green, the Dodger offense never seems to get the job done.
Their pitching does. Odalis Perez came over in the Gary Sheffield trade and has become the ace of this staff. Darren Dreifort looks great now that he is fully recovered, as does Kevin Brown. Kazuhisa Ishii has great talents, and has become a mixed bag in starting. Hideo Nomo was a great deal coming from Boston, and pitching in Dodger Stadium definitly helped this flyball pitcher. The bullpen has also been magnificent. The team traded a lot to get Paul Quantrill and Paul Shuey, but they are starting to pay dividends. On the other hand, Gagne and Guillermo Mota came cheap, and have been great suprises. But this year's Tracy find has been Tom Martin, the situational lefty that has come back from multiple arm surgeries. Throw Andy Ashby in there and you have one magnificent bullpen.
At the end of the year, Hideo Nomo and Andy Ashby will be free agents. Odalis Perez and Eric Gagne will start demanding the big dollars, so LA won't have that extra money around. Fred McGriff, Alex Cora, and Brian Jordan will all be lost from the lineup. McGriff, will likely hit his 500th home run this season, but then move to another team in his debateable HOF campaign. Cora is a bench player who has started WAY too many games in Dodger Stadium, and Jordan is looking more like a 4th OF everyday.
The minor league system has improved so much since Evans got here. The team has three amazing players in the low minors: 1B James Loney, SS Joel Guzman, and OF Franklin Gutierrez. Joe Thurston and Chin-Feng Chen have been minor disappointments, but their careers are long from over. At AAA, Bubba Crosby is doing amazing and has regained prospect status, Koyie Hill looks like a future catching All-Star, and Wilson Alvarez has returned from the dead to be the PCL Cy Young thus far. AA has Victor Diaz, a possible Thurston contender next season, and Joel Hanrahan and Edwin Jackson both succeeding in the rotation. So, this team is doing very well for itself, and should be a powerhouse as those top three get closer to the Majors.
One very good trade the Dodgers made was getting Daryle Ward very cheap. Ward once had great power numbers, and if little else will be alongside Beltre as the great tease. Putting so much time into Cesar Izturis has been fun, but its time that expirament ended, and someone new comes in. Beltre needs a partner at third, and left field can be done within the franchise. Paul Lo Duca should move to playing mostly first base, as youngsters Hill and Dave Ross are ready behind the plate. Ishii can be great against LH, but simply hasn't figured on RH, and is a future situational reliever.
For next winter, this would leave holes at SS, and a need for a Beltre-partner at third. The team has Todd Hundley, Cesar Izturis, and Bubba Crosby as extra players they could deal. First, Evans should sign Rich Aurilla, Jose Valentin, or Jose Hernandez to play shortstop for him next season. All have big time power, decent defense, and could be in the middle of an order. Ex-White Sox player Tony Graffanino makes a perfect option at third, as he could play vs. some RH, and even be able to spot SS and 2B. The team should then trade Crosby, Izturis, and Hundley to the Orioles, who are looking for a SS, would like to try Hundley, and Crosby looks to be a stud. For these three, ask for Melvin Mora and John Stephens. Mora would be the perfect bench player for Tracy: play anywhere on the field, can run well, and hit for power. Stephens is made for Dodger Stadium, as he is an intense flyball pitcher. That would give the 25-man roster this kind of look:
LINEUP
1. Dave Roberts- CF
2. Joe Thurston or Victor Diaz- 2B
3. Paul Lo Duca- C
4. Shawn Green- RF
5. Aurilla/Hernandez/Valentin- SS
6. Ward and Kinkade- LF
7. Beltre and Graffanino- 3B
8. Koyie Hill- C
BENCH
C- Dave Ross
2B/CF- Jason Romano
UT- Melvin Mora
1B/LF- Chin Feng Chen or Larry Barnes
ROTATION
1. Odalis Perez- L
2. Kevin Brown- R
3. Darren Dreifort- R
4. Kazuhisa Ishii or Wilson Alvarez- L
5. Joel Hanrahan/Edwin Jackson/John Stephens- R
BULLPEN
CL. Eric Gagne
SU. Guillermo Mota
MR. Paul Shuey
MR. Paul Quantrill
LH. Tom Martin
LR. Ishii or Alvarez
The team would have options at AAA, another amazing bullpen, and a pretty solid team with the rotation and lineup. It would give some young players the options to expose themselves or not. This team would appeal to the present, and give Evans more opportunities in the future...
Back tomarrow with my notes piece...

2003-05-20T23:54:00.000-05:00

- Questions, Comments appreciated at ballnews722@hotmail.com
STANDING SHOTS- Division Changes
In the last week the Royals relinquished their division lead, the Braves extended their lead, the Yankees and Red Sox became tied, and Los Angeles began its run towards the top. Noticeable teams over the week:
Los Angeles- 10-4 in last 14
The Dodgers pitched very well at the beginning of the season, but it seemed that every game would be out of their grasp. They play small ball, and must have an offense to win, or amazing pitching. For example, over the last week the team was 4-1, allowing only 7 runs over that five game stretch. Here are some amazing numbers:
In 24 Wins: 1.75 runs scored against LA
In 20 losses: 2.1 runs scored by LA
With pitching like Brown-Nomo-Dreifort-Perez and a bullpen with Mota-Shuey-Quantrill-Gagne, this team will shut down offenses on a normal basis. But the offense is cause for concern, as Shawn Green can't carry this team. Adrian Beltre is struggling, the middle infield sucks, and the only other weapon, Dave Roberts, is currently on the DL.
Dave Evans will not sacrifice pitching to improve his offense, but with an improving farm system, the Dodgers will be in this race come September. I hope so, they were my Wild Card choice.
San Francisco- 2-8 in last 10
To start the season the Giants had an easy schedule, an offense outside of Barry Bonds, and a very good bullpen. Over this last ten game stretch, none of that has remained true. Jose Cruz is in a slump, the starters have been mediocre, and Joe Nathan and Felix Rodriguez haven't done as well. Actually, the bullpen that was so overworked in April has been horrid in the last ten:
Bullpen: 16ER in 25.2IP, 5.61ERA
As I stated earlier, the other problem has been the offense. Cruz has been 6/36 in those ten games with eight total bases and a grand total of 0RBI. Edgardo Alfonzo has done horrible, and the Giants have no leadoff hitter without Ray Durham. In their last eight losses the offense has managed 21 runs, good for 2.6 per game. No team will win with those numbers. The San Fran schedule gets easier for the rest of the All-Star Break, and the Giants must improve in all facets. Expect the team to start another run at about the time Durham comes back and Foppert gets acclimated.
Atlanta- 27-5 in last 32 games
Much was made of the Braves bad start, but since April 13, they have received no negative press. Furcal, Giles, Sheffield, Jones, Jones, and Fick is a great 1-6. The staff still has Greg Maddux and Russ Ortiz, with some other mix and matches. The bullpen has the amazing John Smoltz, who has seen an win in his last 70 appearances, modern day's greatest statistic.
The last 16 games have gone in Atlanta's favor in thirteen times, and all games have been against the whole NL West. The West is a good division, but Atlanta has proved itself superior, and looks to have the best offense in the National League. Will that last? I don't know. But it should long enoough to have the pitching get on track, and the Braves will finish with the best record in the NL.
Seattle- 11-5 in last 16 games
I predicted the Mariners to finish last in the AL West...I'm going to be wrong. They are going to finish second. Gil Meche looks like an ace, so now Freddy Garcia's struggles matter less, as he is only a third starter on the club. Ichiro Suzuki is coming back to normal, and Edgar Martinez is playing very well. And quick, who has been the second best reliever in the AL? Yep, its Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Here is the record of the Mariners against the 7 teams they have played:
vs. OAK, ANA, NYY (combined)= 9-10
vs. TEX, CLE, DET, CWS (combined)= 19-5
That tells a lot. The Mariners are good enough to beat on lower teams, but will play only decent ball against the good teams. It reminds me of last year's Boston Red Sox, whom just slipped out of the playoffs. Expect the Mariners to go through some rough times, as KC, Minnesota, and the NL East loom on upcoming dates on a Mariners' schedule. As of today I would change my ranking of the Mariners solely because of Gil Meche, but I truly believe they are not good enough to make the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins- 15-4 in last 19 games
While the Royals captured all the headlines with early season heroics, its the Twins who have made the May ploy to go atop the AL Central. Don't expect them to relinquish this spot for more than a day or two the rest of the season. This team has an amazing bullpen, a good lineup, and a decent pitching staff. But, they win when they pitch well. This 19-game stretch has been because of the pitching that has alotted 62 runs in 19 games, or just over three per game. With a lineup like they have, they'll win a lot of those games. Its hard to read from this stretch as they played six games vs. Tampa, 3 vs. Chicago, 4 vs. Kansas City, and 6 vs. Boston. We know that Tampa sucks and that Boston is good, but we don't know where Kansas City and Chicago fall. But, it does indicate the Twins are going to win.
The next fifteen games for the Twins, followed by the next 15 for the second-place Royals:
Twins: 5 vs. OAK, 7 vs. SEA, 3 vs. SF
Royals: 5 vs. SEA, 7 vs. OAK, 3 vs. LA
Oakland and Seattle will determine the AL Central leader come June 1. But, come October 1 the Twins will be in first by a large margin, and lord I prey that Johan Santana gets the start.
Toronto Blue Jays- 13-4 in May games
The Blue Jays are a middle of the road team. They will win against bad opponents, Texas, Tampa, Chicago, but lose against the Yankees and Red Sox of the worlds. The offense is amazing, but the pitching sucks. JP Riccardi will do everything in his power to get more arms in July, including a Shannon Stewart-Aaron Harang deal that I have started to predict. Harang-Halladay-Arnold would be the three to start in Toronto next season.
But whoever is in the rotation it doesn't matter if the Blue Jays score these kind of runs. With Vernon Wells, Carlos Delgado, and Josh Phelps doing well, and Shannon Stewart setting things up, the Blue Jays are doing well. In the last 17 games, the team scored 122 runs. That's better than seven runs a game, and includes 12, 15, and 18 run contests. Against bad pitching the Blue Jays will mash, and win games. Against the aces, they will lose a majority of the time.
Look for Boston's 2nd-3rd place lead to widen during the season, as will the difference between the Blue Jays and Orioles/Devil Rays. Remember, I have Devil Rays over Orioles, I mean, something has to be different!
New York Yankees- 5-10 in last 15 games
New York survived without Jeter, they survived without Rivera, and with a very weak bullpen. The reason they withstood these losses was the great jobs done by their starters. The infamous 16-0 start of Yankees starters was well documented, and could have been written as 20-3 fifteen games ago. But, in the last fifteen games the Yankees starters have gone 5-8, and the bullpen has contributed two more losses.
While the Bronx Bombers are very good, they are not as untouchable as everyone thought. Mike Mussina has pitched a little over his head, and David Wells is getting insane run support. Roger Clemens could wear down as the season goes on, especially after he reaches the 300-win mark.
The Yankees will win the AL East, there is no way to get around it. Oakland is a better team if they can add another hitter and Jermaine Dye, and will win the AL. Sorry, I really hate the Yankees.

2003-05-20T00:19:00.000-05:00

- Questions, comments, suggestions? E-mail me at ballnews722@hotmail.com
MINOR LEAGUE REPORT- SUPRISING TEAMS
In this week's MLR I have highlighted eight teams, so I can highlight a few of their better players so far. Three of the teams on this list, the Indians, Cubs, and Twins all were expecting to be on a list like this. The White Sox, Royals, and Diamondbacks were expected to have decent farm systems. And the Dodgers and Cardinals were ranked towards the bottom of rankings of farm systems. Here is a breakdown of those eight teams so far:
Minnesota Twins
The story of the Twins, and minor league baseball so far, has been Justin Morneau. The Twins first base prospect has destroyed AA and AAA pitching, to the tune of 14 homers in less than 150AB. Minnesota has their first real 40-50HR threat in a long time, and Morneau looks to be the second coming of Kent Hrbek. Next season the Twins will get rid of Doug Mientkiewicz to make room for Morneau, who will cause quite the DH rivalry. That final batting spot will be between Todd Sears, Matt LeCroy, Lew Ford, and Mike Cuddyer. Ford, traded to Minnesota for Henry Carrasco, is hitting .345 at Rochester, but doesn't have the power to be a good DH, looking more like another Shannon Stewart.
Cuddyer, the Twins former #1 prospect, has been playing a variety of positions in his stint in AAA. The club has tried him twice at second base, which would be great for the franchise. Luis Rivas is playing horribly, and Cuddyer has a first-base caliber bat. Its doubtful the expirament will work, but I do see him on the Major League roster for next year. Don't forget Mike Restovich, yet another AAA slugger who needs to be reckoned with. Below the AAA level there isn't much, besides one of the best prospects in baseball in high-A. Joe Mauer, the former #1 pick, is doing well, but hasn't hit a home run in about 130AB. He has a .309BA, plate discipline, and flawless defense, but must improve the fact he has 38 singles in 43 hits, with the others being doubles. One other player is succeeding, a shortstop named Jason Bartlett in AA. The player traded from the Padres last season for Brian Buchanon is hitting .335 in New Britain, showing both plate discipline and speed. Move over Christian Guzman!
The once stockpiled farm system isn't showing promise in lower levels, but has enough bats at the top to be a top 10 farm system. Its Terry Ryan's job to get the right players and trade some of these extras come July.
Chicago Cubs
No matter what publication you chose this offseason, the Chicago Cubs were a top 3 farm system. They had a top player, in Hee Seop Choi, ready to dominate the Majors. A pitcher, Angel Guzman, almost ready at AA, and good players below such as Andy Sisco and Felix Pie. The system isn't disappointing, but is seeing production from unlikely sources.
Francis Beltran, a relief prospect in last year's Futures Game, has a 1.85ERA in 18 games at AAA. But the talk of the minors is the amazing rotation being displayed by the Lansing Lugnuts, the Cubs low-A team. Here are the numbers of the 1-4 starters:
- Andy Sisco- 2-2, 1.78, 16/30.1 with a 24/13 K/BB
- Jae Kuk Ryu- 3-0, 2.66, 24/23.2 with a 21/6 K/BB
- Justin Jones- 1-3, 3.20, 23/25.1 with a 33/7 K/BB
- Anderson Tavarez- 5-0, 2.04, 40/39.2 with a 28/9 K/BB
While hitting prospects Pie, Nic Jackson, and Brendan Harris aren't quite meeting expectations, David Kelton is hitting well and trying third base in Iowa. Guzman has been a mixed bag in AA, but definitly won't be ready until 2004 to play in the Majors. Chadd Blasko, a first-rounder, succeeding in Lansing before moving up to Daytona.
The Cubs have done a magnificent job with drafts in recent years, and the successes of Hee Seop Choi and Corey Patterson are displaying the fruits this system has to offer.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians were yet another team who was expected to have a great farm system this season. Mark Shapiro has done a very good job stocking the system through trades, and now his drafts are starting to pay off as well. As Cleveland struggles this season, its likely most of the minor league affiliates will do well, with talent all across the board.
At AAA, the team has Coco Crisp in the outfield. Crisp, a centerfielder acquired in the Chuck Finley deal, has an OBP around .450 and is showing good defense in center. His play could push Milton Bradley to right field, a move that would be good for the franchise. AA has a few more players, including a breakout reliever named Kazuhito Tadano. Tadano started the year in low-A and has recently been moved to AA. His combined numbers thus far:
Tadano: 2-1, 25 IP, 18H, 34/3 K/BB
Looks like a savior. As does Jeremy Guthrie, the first round pick from last season. Guthrie, a Stanford grad, has proved to be too much for AA, and deserves a promotion to Buffalo. He is very good, and profiles to be a #2-3 starter in the Majors soon.
Those are the players making headlines, but the team is happy with improvements from Grady Sizemore, Brian Tallet, and Corey Smith so far this season. Ex-super prospect Alex Escobar is in Buffalo working to regain his tools, but has struggled so far.
The rebuilding process will be slow, but the team has the system to take them back to the top.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The former World Champs looked to have a horrible farm system two years ago, but started to see great production last year. But with many injuries on the Major League front, many of their top pitchers have been summoned from the minors. Their other star, Mike Gosling, has been struggling to get AAA hitters out in the early months. But even with these struggles have been some good players who slipped through the cracks of judgement.
Chad Tracy, AA batting title winner, is raking around .400 again this season. Tracy won't hit for power in the big leagues, but would be a good alternative to the Counsell-Williams platoon going on right now. Both AA and high-A have centerfielders contributing in big fashion, being Victor Hall and Marland Williams respectively. Hall was a speedster taken in the Rule V draft only to be returned, and is now hitting .346 in AA. Williams isn't hitting quite so high, but already has 25SB on the young season. Hall looks to be more the 5th OF type than starter, but the jury is still out on Williams.
Finally, catcher Craig Ansman is making a name for himself in AA. Ansman should have an easy road to the big leagues, because while Rod Barajas has started well, that should fade, and Ansman will become a necessary part of the catching situation. Arizona has many deferred contracts and will lean on its farm system to hold it up in the coming years. With Scott Hairston and Co. coming through the system, all systems are go.
Chicago White Sox
The Sox had the best farm system in the Majors a few years ago, but the products haven't turned out on the field. There are players like Joe Borchard and Kris Honel with all the talent in the world, that could put the Scouting Director on the map.
But these four players were all on the team in unlikely situations, making the man who put them there often criticized. First, is 5-6 2B Aaron Miles. Miles did well in AA last year, but was a minor league free agent at the end of the year. It was important for the team to sign him, as he draws comparisons to David Eckstein...naturally. Miles is hitting .353 at AAA with six home runs in 139 AB. One problem is the fact that Miles is 0/5 in SB and hasn't done very well with plate discipline. But if Jose Valentin leaves the Sox, look for Miles to get some time at second base.
The second player is Neal Cotts, acquired in the offseason Billy Koch trade. The left-hander was an extra in the Oakland system, but has blossemed at AA this year. Cotts is 5-1 with a 1.88ERA in eight starts so far. He has only allowed 23H in 40.2 innings pitched, striking out 58 while walking 29. Neal has moved up prospect lists and is looking to be a top 10 pitcher right now. He is defnitly better than John Rheinecker the 'prospect' Oakland held onto. Another player at AA is doing very well, last year's first-round pick Royce Ring. Ken Williams was criticized for wasting his first-round pick on a left-handed reliever, but Ring has done great so far. In 18.2 innings pitched so far, Ring has allowed 1 run, striking out 26 in the process. If Arnie Munoz gets it turned around, then the White Sox could have four lefties in a bullpen (Wunsch, Marte, Ring, Munoz).
Finally, the last player is Ryan Meaux. Meaux, another leftie reliever, was traded to the White Sox for Kenny Lofton last July. At high-A Meaux has allowed 1 earned run in 31 innings, having an ERA of 0.29. In those 31 innings he has struck out 24 and walked one batter. I don't think he will continue with such success, but a promotion would be a good idea.
Kansas City Royals
While the Royals started off this season hot, their minor league squad did the same. They have had leftie Jimmy Gobble destroy the Texas League, to the tune of a 2.92 ERA. He has pitched better than that, and definitly deserves a promotion to AAA. I said at the beginning of the year that him and Snyder would end up in the rotation, and stick with that guess.
Byron Gettis has done a great job in right field in AA, and looks to have that position all but locked up in 2004. Mike Tonis has done fairly well behind the plate, and stands to be Brent Mayne's successor. Ruben Gotay is a good second basemen, and should have the job in Kansas City in 2005. Finally, 2001's first round pick Colt Griffin is improving at low-A, with his last three starts being promising. If he could ever harness that stuff...
Which brings us to Zack Greinke. The Royals' 2002 first-rounder has established himself as a top-10 prospect with his early season brilliance, and could be in AA very soon. His numbers so far:
Greinke: 6-0 1.20ERA 33/45 H/IP 42/6 K/BB
Wow. Allan Baird is doing things right. Never thought I would see that.
For the final two teams, St. Louis and Los Angles, I will just write stats of those breaking out...
St. Louis
Dan Haren- AA- 6-0 0.82 36/55 49/6, since promoted to AAA
Tyler Johnson- A+- 2-5 3.28 46/46.2 48/20, stud with bad run support
Blake Hawksworth- A- 4-0 1.00 18/36 41/8
And, Jimmy Journell has moved to relief, where some think he could be a special closer.
Los Angeles
Bubba Crosby- LF- AAA- .409-6-28 5/5 12/14- back to prospect
Koyie Hill- C- AAA- .385 in his first forty AAA at bats
Wilson Alvarez- the old one- 4-0 0.96 15/28 22/3, back
Victor Diaz- 2B- AA- .307-1-18 5/11 6/27
Joel Hanrahan- P- AA- 5-1 2.31 38/46.2 52/17
Franklin Gutierrez- OF- A+- .344-12-38 8/10 17/49
Brian Pilkington- P- A+- 6-1 3.05 59/59 32/8

That's all folks, back tomarrow, with another Remodeling...

2003-05-18T18:52:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Aaron Gleeman for the plug. I started the blog last week and looked for guidance from Aaron. For those who didn't get here courtesy of Gleeman, here is his site, Aaron's Baseball Blog. Any Questions, Comments, or Suggestions about the site would be greatly appreciated, e-mail me at ballnews722@hotmail.com.
SUNDAY COLUMN- OPPOSITES MUST BOTH GO
Steve Phillips and Chuck LaMar have very different jobs. Although both their titles read 'GM', their occupations are like the difference between a Fortune 500 CEO and small business manager. Phillips works with a payroll paying the luxury tax, LaMar reaps off other teams from revenue sharing. But both have not held their own, and both are long overdue for a firing from New York and Tampa respectively.

Phillips, the big-time CEO, has been the general manager of the Mets since July 16, 1997. The '97 team finished 88-74, as did his first team in 1998. But the next two years the Mets reached the playoffs, getting to the NLCS in 1999 and then the World Series the following year. Mike Piazza and Al Leiter made Phillips appear as one of the game's best, and despite losing to the cross-town Yankees, the New York media enshrined him. Then, with expectations riding high, came the 2001 and 2002 seasons.
The 2001 season ended horribly for the Mets fans who demanded the World Series again, the team finished third. The club didn't hit, and then in July they traded a good pitcher, Rick Reed, for an outfielder who didn't help, Matt Lawton. So after 2001, Phillips decided to throw everything out the window. The club went for it all, putting the payroll above the $100M barrier. Phillips dealt Kevin Appier to the Angels for Mo Vaughn. He traded Lawton, prospect Billy Traber, and others to the Indians for Robbie Alomar. They moved Edgardo Alfonzo from second to his old position, third. They spent money on once-Met Roger Cedeno to be atop their lineup, and acquired Jeromy Burnitz for the other corner. Three-fifths of the rotation was changed, with the new members being Pedro Astacio, Shawn Estes, and Jeff D'Amico. Phillips and the Mets were the topic of conversation, and the 'other' New York team was ready to be in the spotlight...
They finished 75-86, last place. And the performance of the newcomers? Well, the numbers speak for themselves:
- Vaughn= .259-26-72 and horrid defense, not exactly middle of the lineup material
- Alomar= .266-11-53 and subpar defense from the best second basemen ever
- Cedeno= .260-7-41 and bad defense from their leadoff hitter
- Burnitz= .215-19-54 from another slugger
- Astacio= 12-11, 4.79ERA in 31 starts... from their #2 starter.
- Estes= 4-9, 4.55ERA in 23 starts...later traded for nothing
- D'Amico= 6-10, 4.92 in 22 starts...later found on the DL
- John Thomson (midseason acquisition)= 2-6, 4.31 ERA
This all-out failure was bound to anger owner Fred Wilpon, who blamed Bobby Valentine, and loosened the purse strings a little more. This time it was for Tom Glavine and Cliff Floyd, more saviors in New York. While these are great players, the team failed to fix their defensive problems, third base situation, and rotation depth, and now find themselves in a battle for last place.
Mr. Wilpon, it is time to put the blame in the right place. The players Phillips brought in were wrong for the team, and not Valentine, not Art Howe, not Earl Weaver could bring this team to .500. Who can put a winning team in Shea Stadium? Jim Duquette, Phillip's assistant GM.

Now to the other who should end up on unemployment, Chuck LaMar. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays became Major League Baseball's 30th team, joining the Arizona Diamondbacks as 1998 expansion teams. The club finished a predictable 63-99, not a horrible beginning for a brand-new team. The team didn't draw attendance as well as they had wanted, but quickly blamed the lack of talent on the field. While Fred McGriff and Roberto Hernandez are nice names, their no hometown heroes.
So what changed? Well the team tried to by adding 3,000 hit man Wade Boggs, fan favorite Jose Canseco, and one-time ace Wilson Alvarez. Unfortunately, it added only six games in the win column. The farm system was still developing, but featured one of the best prospects around, right-hander Matt White. There was hope, as LaMar's team kept reporting above-average drafts. But, as we have seen, there is a difference between high schoolers and college players...
In 2000, Matt White was injured. Up to this day, White has not made a significant impact on a team of any sort, especially a Major League club. The team saw huge numbers from Josh Hamilton, and saw him rise to number one on prospect lists despite numerous injuries. This last Spring Training Hamilton asked for a personal leave, and in the last week asked for the year off. I wish him the best of luck, and hope that he returns back with all his potential in 2004. But needless to say, it was yet another blow for the desolate D-Rays farm system. The 2000 team added even more names in Vinny Castilla, Greg Vaughn, and Steve Trachsel, but couldn't hit the seventy win plateau. It was to be Larry Rothschild's last year as manager, another owner not willing to see who is really to blame.
The team ditched the veteran idea in 2001, trading Fred McGriff mid-way through, going with Aubrey Huff at third, and trading for Rookie of the Year Ben Grieve in right field. The pitching staff was horrible, and the Grieve trade hasn't worked. I don't really think LaMar is to blame for the Grieve trade, as no one would have foreseen these numbers:
2001= .264-11-72 and 72 runs in 154 games in right
2002= .251-19-64 and 62 runs in 136 games
Greg Vaughn was another decent signing who had power numbers lower than common thought
2000: 28 home runs in 461 at bats
2001: 24 home runs in 485 at bats
2002: 8 home runs in 251 at bats (.163 batting average)
2002 saw the worst Tampa team yet, one that had a 15-game losing skid, and finished with 55 wins. While Huff and Randy Winn broke out, Steve Cox, Brent Abernathy, and Toby Hall were disappointments in Tampa Bay. The pitching was horrid again, with Joe Kennedy the only decent member of the staff. After the season ownership decided to change the manager again, but just added more bad names (Cam Bonifay) to the front office.
But it was no regular name that was put in the Manager spot in Tampa. It wasn't another Rothschild or Hal McRae, it was Lou Piniella. It was the manager that turned the Cincinnati Reds upside-down, and took Seattle from a joke to the winningest team ever. While it did take All-Star Randy Winn to do it, it may be paying off. The Devil Rays have a payroll of around $35 million, but the 25-men on the team are a total of about $20 million. The team looks like they have developed a superstar in centerfield, Rocco Baldelli, who has even drawn Dimaggio comments. They lack in pitching, but with Huff and Baldelli in the middle, Carl Crawford developing, and more hitters on the way, there is some light at the end of the tunnell...
That being said, there needs to be a change. They need a front office, and a GM, capable of engulfing a city in hope and selling season tickets. They need someone able to work with strict payrolls but still able to find a bargain and make a good trade. Someone who will excite the owner enough to make that payroll closer to $40 or $50 million. Lou Piniella has a friend who is a free agent next season, a man who had to work with Carl Lindner's requirements but still managed to acquire Griffey, Jim Bowden. Tampa needs Bowden, and they need to get rid of Chuck LaMar.

Irony: One expansion team as bad as the D-Rays were the 1962-1967 New York Mets. It wasn't until 1968, their seventh season, when they won 70 games. The Devil Rays seventh season will be in 2004, when Jim Bowden should be in charge and LaMar and Phillips looking for scouting jobs.

Back tomarrow with a full-length minor league report....

2003-05-15T23:07:00.000-05:00

NEWS, NOTES, AND RUMOR REVIEWS
- Relievers with 5+ scoreless innings so far this season:
~Brendan Donnelly- 21.1IP- Indy League Savior
~Turk Wendell- 14IP- Amazing return from surgery
~Kelly Wunsch- 11.1IP- Return to 2000 form
~Mike Fetters- 6IP- Pufferfish currently on DL
~Mike Crudale- 5IP- April 1st roster snub
- A look at the 9 Rule V pitchers around the Majors:
*Javy Lopez- COL- 1-0 9H/16IP 1.13ERA 14K/4BB
*Matt Roney- DET- 0-0 14H/15.2IP 2.87ERA 9K/6BB
*Chris Spurling- DET- 1Sv 15H/13.1IP 3.38ERA 6K/4BB
*Wil Ledezma- DET- 0-2 10H/14.1IP 4.40ERA 11K/6BB
*D.J. Carrasco- KC- 0-0 13H/20.2IP 2.18ERA 19K/6BB
*Matt Ford- MIL- 0-0 5H/12.1IP 0.73ERA 6K/4BB
*Luis Ayala- MON- 3-2 18H/18.1IP 3.93ERA 10K/2BB
*Mike Neu- OAK- 0-0 6H/10IP 0.90ERA 5K/2BB
*Aquilino Lopez-TOR- 0-1 17H/15IP 5.40EERA 25K/7BB
- Sunday's column will be the importance of relief wins to a winning team. The five relievers with four wins:
~Steve Reed- Colorado- Bailed out by team too often
~Albie Lopez- Kansas City- Horrible, Averaging run an inning
~Joe Nathan- San Fran- Felipe Alou's choice in tie games
~Ricky Stone- Houston- One of league's best unknown players
~Jung Bong- Atlanta- Best name in bigs, key part of Braves' pen
- A note on each member of Detroit's "formidable" rotation:
Nate Cornejo- 19th on Baseball Prospectus' Top ML Starters
Mike Maroth- 1st in Prospectus' Unluckiest pitcher ranking
Gary Knotts- 4 Quality Starts, 5 starts allowing two runs or less
Jeremy Bonderman- 4 Quality Starts in 7 starts, all four in last five starts
Adam Bernero- 4th Unluckiest starter in Majors (From BP)
- Jose Guillen will be pushed back to the bench, since Ken Griffey has returned. His name has come up as a possible trade candidate for the Reds. He bears striking resemblance to Karim Garcia:
Garcia's 2002 with Cleveland= 197AB .299-16-52 29R
Guillen's 2003 so far= 102AB .333-7-21 18R
Both were big outfield prospects, Guillen with Pittsburgh and Garcia with Los Angeles. Both were journeymen, playing collectively in 13 seasons and on 9 teams before these 'breakout' seasons. Something to consider for potential Guillen buyers: Garcia has started 2003 hitting .194, and is on the DL right now.
- The Kansas City bullpen has been both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season. Too many times the 'pen has contributed to a loss, or furthered the margin for the other team:
*Bullpen in 15 losses so far: 77H/44.2IP 22K/20BB 9.07ERA 2.17WHIP 7 losses
When the team began 11-0, it was the bullpen that got the press. Here's why:
*Bullpen in 24 wins: 46H/72.3IP 69K/29BB 1.87ERA 1.04WHIP 10 wins
- Quickies:
- Fernando Vina for Roberto Alomar swap talks continued: Vina in TLR doghouse. I still like my Alomar to the Twins idea, inotherwords for Luis Rivas and Mike Restovich. Gives New York more 2004 flexibility.
- Ruben Mateo clears waivers- Ruben hit .317-10-28 in 104 Winter League at bats this offseason. He can play all three outfield spots well, but doesn't make it just because of a supposed bad rap? Which brings us to...
- Julio Lugo signs with Tampa Bay- The D-Rays said they did homework before signing Lugo. I like the new style of signing that Pinella has brought. Its payed off with some veterans so far, but they're so cheap that releasing is an option.
That's all I got...

2003-05-14T20:18:00.000-05:00

REMODELING THE RANGERS
Can a team ever win with $25 million devoted to one player, in one of the best hitter's havens in the Major Leagues? Only if the other $75 million is allocated between 24 other high-caliber players. John Hart's administration and Doug Melvin's before that hasn't done it.

The Rangers are in a division that in the previous years have produced six playoff teams, the team with the best regular season record ever, and a World Series Champion. All the while, the Rangers have produced three teams averaging a record of 72-90. Last season, it was the bullpen that was notably bad, the worst in the Majors. They preceded that with some of the worst starting rotations in a long time. Here is the record and ERAs of the three previous teams the Rangers have put out, and this season's start:
2000: 71-91, 5.52 ERA 2002: 72-90, 5.15 ERA
2001: 73-89, 5.71 ERA 2003: 16-22, 5.86 ERA
(through Tuesday)

The Rangers have seen Chan Ho Park and Ismael Valdes spend time on the DL, and gave Doug Davis to Toronto just to see him thrive. Top pitching prospect Colby Lewis hasn't succeeded in the Majors, and the rest of the options have been complete failures. The bullpen has started with a 4.85 ERA, barely better than 2002's 4.91, and closer Urbina hasn't done well. The club is set to see Jeff Zimmerman return, and improvements from Urbina, Esteban Yan, and Rosman Garcia.

Once again the offense is super, leading the Majors in slugging percentage, and fifth in team runs. They have seen dramatic improvements from Carl Everett, Michael Young, and Hank Blalock. Juan Gonzalez is back from injury and thriving, and Rafeal Palmiero drew the press hitting #500. The letdowns have been centerfield, who knows what they were thinking, and #1 prospect Mark Teixeira. With the many 1B/3B/DH types in Texas, Teixeira hasn't gotten consistent playing time, and hardly has been able to find his stroke. The club should do a move similar to what they did with Blalock last year, let him play in AAA the rest of the season, and hope that 2004 is good. Scoring runs in Arlington will never be difficult, but the Rangers insist on high salaries to hitters.

Among free agents at the end of the year are Everett, Gonzalez, and Palmiero, three huge names and huge power guys. They will lose Glanville, and pitchers John Thomson, Valdes, and Urbina are all set to leave. The team did tie themselves up with way too many long-term contracts so the list of guaranteed roster spots are: Einar Diaz, Herbert Perry, Chan Ho Park, Jay Powell, Jeff Zimmerman, Todd Van Poppell, Alex Rodriguez, and Rusty Greer. And finally the Baseball America top 10 prospects, and the level they are currently playing:
1. Mark Teixeira- MLB- 3B/1B
2. Colby Lewis- MLB- RHP
3. Ben Kozlowski- AA- LHP
4. Lance Nix- AA- CF
5. Gerald Laird- MLB- C
6. Drew Meyer- A- SS
7. Ryan Ludwick- AAA- LF/RF
8. C.J. Wilson- AA- LHP
9. Travis Hughes- AAA- RHP
10. Jason Bourgeois- A+- 2B/SS
As you can see, only two of these players are below AA, so they have a crop ready or nearly ready for the big leagues. If used right, that will come in handy.

2003-2004 Offseason Moves
1. Allow all free agents to leave the franchise- While a large part of the middle of the lineup are free agents, its time to trust their prospects, believing in the theory that they will score runs regardless of who plays.
2. Bring Texan Roger Clemens home- The team did the same with Nolan Ryan, now its Clemens' turn. A two-year deal between 15-20 million will be necessary, but worth it as Clemens still pitches like an ace.
3. Sign Shannon Stewart to lead off- Stewart is very good at what he does: lead off and left field. That will help Lance Nix's shaky defense in center, and allow the young middle of the lineup to have someone to knock in.
4. Acquire Tony Armas and Miguel Batista- Armas is a great young arm that Montreal likely won't be able to afford, and for Bourgeois and Wilson, will be able to give away. Batista was one of Showalter's old players, and a useful spare part wherever he plays.

Proposed 2004 25-Man Roster
Line Up
1. Shannon Stewart- LF
2. Micheal Young- 2B
3. Alex Rodriguez- SS
4. Hank Blalock- 3B
5. Kevin Mench- DH
6. Mark Teixeira- 1B
7. Ryan Ludwick- RF
8. Lance Nix- CF
9. Gerald Laird- C
Bench
Mike Lamb, Herbert Perry, Einar Diaz, Jermaine Clark, Jason Hart
Rotation
1. Roger Clemens
2. Tony Armas
3. Chan Ho Park
4. Joaquin Benoit/Travis Hughes
5. Colby Lewis/Ben Kozlowski
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero, Jay Powell, Jeff Zimmerman, Todd Van Poppell, Erasmo Ramirez, Miguel Batista

NINE NOTES OF THE NIGHT

1. Chipper Jones has the lowest average of the Braves line up 1-6, he's hitting .291!
2. On Tuesday, Mets youngsters Pat Strange, Jason Middlebrook, and Jamie Cerda pitched 1.1 innings, allowed 5 hits, and 5ER to take the loss.
3. Kent Mercker's last 12 appearances: 9.1IP, 4H, 8K, 5BB, 0ER- keeping bullpen together. Great move by the Reds signing Kent to minor league deal.
4. Matt Lecroy's last 5 games: 9-20 8RBI 2HR. Will be in 2004 battle at DH with Todd Sears, Mike Cuddyer, and Mike Restovich. Cuddyer should win.
5. Shawn Estes last three starts: 3-0 2.53ERA 21.1IP 18H 14/10.
6. Billy Koch trusted for first save since April 22, against the Orioles. Think Williams has regrets?
7. Suppan needed a league change bad, doing great with Pirates. PNC seems to be turning many pitchers around. Could it be the Dodger Stadium of our generation?
8. The Astros are 14-4 when Lance Berkman scores a run.
9. Eric Byrnes is thriving at his shot in playing time in Oakland. Not thriving are Adam Piatt, Ron Gant, and Frank Menechino.

2003-05-13T22:28:00.000-05:00

Jeter and Griffey Return to Bigs
After both suffering horrible seperated shoulder injuries, both Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey played in games today. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus notes that their speedy recoveries may change the timetable for seperated shoulders, and will make the Padres question their motives of putting Phil Nevin to surgery.
Jeter, who was hurt on the running slide by Ken Huckaby, was called up after a successful rehabilitation stint in Trenton of the Eastern League. Jeter went 1-4 in his first start since the injury, an eighth inning single of Brendan Donnelly. The Yankees did very well in his absence, owning the best record in the big leagues. The team sent down Erick Almonte, his replacement, to AAA to make room. As a side note, the Yanks will call up Antonio Osuna from a rehabilitation stint, and Jose Contreras to replace Al Reyes and Randy Choate in the bullpen.
Griffey was hurt in the outfield vs. the Cubs, laying out for a ball that he shouldn't have. The injury looked super-serious, and even injury guru Carroll mentioned possibilities of Griffey missing the entire season. Ken will spend two days pinch-hitting, and then get his first start against the Brewers on Thursday. Griffey's injury will push red-hot outfielder Jose Guillen to the bench, and forced the team to designate Ruben Mateo for assignment. Mateo is out of options, and after tearing up in the Winter League, did absolutely nothing when Griffey went down. It wasn't until Guillen played regularly when the Reds began their push towards the top of the NL Central, now only two back of the Cubbies.
Congratulations to both players who, at different times, were considered the best men in baseball.

2003-05-13T20:57:00.000-05:00

Commisioners Office to Investigate McKeon Hiring
Major League Baseball will look into the way in which the Florida Marlins hired new manager Jack McKeon, accusing the team of not complying to minority hiring rules.
The official rule is the club is supposed to be that the team notifies the Commisioners Office of a job opening, and then submit a list of minority members under consideration for the job. The Detroit Tigers broke these rules in the 2000 hiring of Phil Garner, but weren't punished. A similar problem recently happened in football, as the Detroit Lions didn't interview minorities before hiring Steve Mariucci.
Jeff Torborg was officially fired on Sunday, after the team had not been meeting GM Larry Beinfest's and owner Jeffrey Loria's expectations. Beinfest stated before the season that his team would win at least 91 games, but is now battling the New York Mets for the last spot in the NL East division. Also in question was the handling of young pitchers by Torborg and ex-pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, which came into the limelight with the lengthened loss of ace A.J. Burnett.
Don't expect the Office to come down too hard on the Marlins, and rightfully so. While I stress that I am not against hiring minorities, its important for each team to hire whom they feel is the best man for the job. For some reason, Beinfest and Loria found that to be Jack McKeon. We'll see.....